Retail In Asia Pacific – Mercury Rising Beyond India And China

Anuj-PuriReflecting the improving economic sentiments within the Asia Pacific region, retail is once again emerging as a preferred asset class for investors who see consumption as being closely aligned to the region’s growth.

China will witness the retail wave rise in its next 50 cities even as Hong Kong continues to leverage its proximity to the mainland to fuel its retail boom. Meanwhile, India still awaits the new FDI norms to kick-start investments.

However, interest is also rising for the favourable demographics of Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, where evolving consumer preferences influence expansion strategies for retailers. The retail market drivers in these countries are a growing middle class and the growing share of young, generously salaried and highly aspirational population from the IT/ITeS sector. Similar to what is being seen in India and China, the Governments of these countries are in various stages of opening up the retail markets for foreign participation.

Like India, the Philippines benefits from a considerable young English-speaking talent pool and service-oriented culture. The resultant high incomes and a enhanced level of overseas worker remittances are driving domestic consumption. With massive strides forward in infrastructure, utilities and tourism (all of which attract investments) we foresee enhanced job creation, which will directly influence consumption. The fact that the Philippines currently has four of the world’s 12 largest malls stand testimony to this.

Despite various setbacks, retail consumption in Thailand has expanded by more than 50% over the past decade. In the past five years, Bangkok has received 1.73 million square meters of new modern retail space – an impressive increase of 49% from 2008. Apart from continued economic growth, rising incomes, new residential catchment areas and the evolution to modern retail formats, Bangkok also benefits from its vastly improved mass transit infrastructure.

Sri Lanka – particularly Colombo – is another retail hotbed attracting a lot of attention. It has witnessed a steady upward trend in the IT/ITES sector during the past decade, with several off-shore centres now operating in the country. Colombo already has eight operational shopping malls, with an average vacancy rate of only 3-8%. Another 1.05 million square feet of organized retail space will be added in Colombo by 2015.

This implies that, from a geographical expansion into the Asian markets, retailers are advised to adopt a two-pronged approach – Vertical penetration into existing markets such as China, India and Hong Kong, and a flanking strategy for countries such as Philippines, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia.

Anuj Puri, Chairman & Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle India 

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The Role Of Lender’s Engineer In Developer Loan Approvals

Pallav Saxena A Little-Known But Increasingly Important Function

The lender’s engineer (LE) is a representative of lending institutions such as banks and NBFCs. His function is to audit a project from the technical standpoint when a developer seeks funding for it. This is a process which risk/compliance teams have, over time, hard-wired into funding proposals by developers.

The obvious intention behind this requirement is to identify, mitigate and hedge the lending institution’s risks with regards to the technical aspects of construction.

The key risks include:

  • The developer’s potential inability to service the debt
  • The potential use of the funds for purposes other than what they were allocated for
  • Construction progress not keeping pace with disbursement

Currently, the RBI has not mandated any regulations in this regard. The requirement of a Lender’s Engineer is a factor of the risk and compliance parameters of individual lending institutions.

To safeguard the interests of all concerned, lenders have to ensure that the appointed LE has performed a sufficiently detailed review, provided the correct information and reviewed all the construction risks. Meanwhile, there is a recurring question in the minds of developers – what is the value they derive from paying for a lenders engineer? Is the mandatory rubber stamp all that they can expect?

The fact is that they can – and should – derive a lot more value than this from such professional services.

The True Lender Engineer Value Proposition

A knowledgeable, involved and neutral Lender Engineer can bring tangible and definite advantages that go beyond the stamp of approval to the developer’s table. The benefits of such a LE’s services in terms of project monitoring are, in fact, not limited to providing security to lending institutions – they are also an important component of risk management and value addition for the developer himself.

Backed by sound technical knowledge, the LE plays a vital role in overall project monitoring and coordination by providing steady technical feedback. These inputs can help developers to present a more accurate and convincing picture of the project’s progress at construction control meetings.

Also, these expert inputs can help reduce the chances of project failures due to:

  • Conflict among the various project participants
  • The project manager’s lack of information or knowledge
  • Indecisiveness among project participants on key decisions

A professional project development and monitoring agency brings in best practices on processes which developers might not have adopted yet, and increased efficiency in the development process will always lead to a better product. Also, proactive identification of risks can lead to better planning / early value engineering, which can subsequently lead to savings upto 10% on the project costs.

It is recommended for lenders to involve a LE at the pre-investment stage, since this will ensure that risks like labour availability, uncovered project costs and overall specification and project cost can be identified in time. This is particularly relevant in light of the fact that new construction technologies are emerging constantly. Both the lending institution and the project developers must aware of these technologies and the cost benefit analysis before they can be leveraged for a more efficient project development.

Social factors like environmental, health and safety practices are factors which require far greater emphasis than they are currently being accorded in the Indian construction industry. Only a neutral, qualified person whose concerns extend beyond mere time and cost savings can provide impartial guidance on these concerns. In these areas, the LE can – by virtue of his function and expertise – is in a position to provide inputs that can have a significant impact.

To illustrate – in the case of a large residential construction, a LE helped a major developer to manage labour attrition by providing value-adding facilities such as on-site crèche and medical aid centre.

What To Look For In a Lender’s Engineer

  • Ethics is the key quality. Innumerable areas in a construction project can remain invisible to the untrained eye and can only be identified with technical involvement. These areas must not only be brought to light but also brought to the notice of all stakeholders.
  • A construction project has various components to success. The technical aspects range from geological factors, architectural design aspects, civil construction and the use of the most efficient mechanical and electrical equipment & services. The appointed LE must be able to understand these complexities and help ensure that the project has the benefit of an optimal mix of architects, civil engineers and mechanical and electrical engineers.
  • A technical analysis is incomplete without use of technology. The LE must be proficient in the use of technology to be able to ensure sound risk management and progress mapping.
  • The LE must be able to translate technical information into inputs that are relevant to the financial participants in the project – these could include payback period and factors that impact returns.
  • The primary scope of a LE includes providing expert insights on the availability and applicability of statutory approvals for a project. The LE must have deep knowledge of statutory aspects and approvals, and must utilize a system to review such approvals through predefined checklists.

For all these reasons, professional Project Management firms with the benefit of global exposure translated into local implementation are best suited to provide Lender’s Engineer services.

Current Points Of Dilemma

The appointment of a LE is often a matter of some dispute, since the LE is appointed and paid by the developer but provides the report to the lending institution. Nevertheless, the appointment of a LE is a requirement and all the developer expects to get in return is a stamp of approval. This is a very limited – and, in the case of the developer, self-defeating – way of looking at the whole issue.

The LE needs to be considered as a partner in delivering a better product by both the project participants. This new level of awareness is already being witnessed in the case of private equity investors who have better technical monitoring service providers on board, because they have a stronger say in the project’s overall development process.

At the same time, lending institutions need to have a more scientific basis on which pre-qualification for lender’s engineers takes place. This will permit professional project management companies with better resources, capabilities, scientific risk analysis processes to provide better data and, above all, higher ethical practices to provide higher value. Lenders, as key project partners, should have a stronger say in identifying their representatives.

This will ensure that the project’s development focuses on a higher quality of real estate products which take into consideration the social aspects of construction – such as safety, health and environmental impact.

Pallav Saxena, Head – Development Advisory (Project & Development ServiceJones Lang LaSalle India

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Mumbai Residential Property Appreciation 66% In Four Years

Ramesh Nair 3In the Indian city which has for years carried the unwholesome reputation of being the most over-priced in terms of residential real estate valuations, there is no relief in sight for aspiring home buyers. Over the last four years, property valuations in the financial capital have increased by an average of 66%. All ‘expert’ predictions over the last 3 years of an imminent correction have proved to be wrong.

It is true that going by all known market dynamics, a correction was inevitable. Lack of affordability over an extended period is a known catalyst for downward revisions in any market category, including real estate. Another globally accepted precursor of a property market correction is a surfeit of unsold inventory. If these two indicators would have held true in Mumbai, the city’s residential real estate market should have corrected three years ago. However…

Ground Reality

Residential property prices in Mumbai have increased steadily after the correction seen post the Lehman debacle. In the period from the second quarter of 2009 to the same quarter in 2013, residential real estate prices in Mumbai have increased by 66%. In Thane, the increase has been even higher at 70% while Navi Mumbai has seen a staggering escalation of 74%.

Even within Mumbai, some locations have crossed the 66% average increase in the same period. The Malad–Borivali belt has seen an increase of 85%. The cumulative price escalation figures for Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai represent the highest among all cities in India. During the period in question (2Q 2009-2Q 2013), Gurgaon and Bangalore – undeniably two of the hottest real estate markets in India, saw increases of 52% and 46% respectively.

From an end-user’s perspective, Mumbai’s astronomical residential property price increase is undoubtedly irrational. Below the surface, however, there are market forces at work which cannot be mitigated.

Escalation Triggers

One of the primary reasons for Mumbai’s ‘unreal’ price movements is the limited supply of ‘clear’ land (land without encumbrances and with clear titles). Other factors at play are the reduction in new residential project launches over a 1.5 year period from 1Q 2011 to 2Q 2012 – caused largely by a slowdown in approvals for new residential projects – and the high interest rate scenario in 2010-2011. In this period, the Government – in its efforts to curb inflation – raised lending rates around 12 times.

Every time this happened, developers’ input costs for their projects rose in tandem. The matter was further compounded by the pressure on developers to give assured return to investors who had bought into their projects at the pre-launch stage. Meanwhile, there was a high rate of price volatility in other asset classes such as equity.

This, along with the increasingly high cost of debt, brought about a massive liquidity crunch – as a result, developers’ backs were to the wall when it came to purchasing the massively priced land parcels limiting new project launches. The historical title disputes attached to many of these plots did not help matters much, either.

In the midst of all this came the new DCR rules, which caused many residential projects to come to a grinding halt midway as developers and architects struggled to adapt projects at various stages of development to a completely new set of mandatory guidelines.

Finally, we need to consider the phenomenon that is, in degree if not in principle, more or less unique to Mumbai – that of developers as well as buyers adopting the dubious philosophy of benchmarking prices in an particular locality based on one or two high-profile transactions or over-hyped launches.

Demand Remains Steady

Through it all, the demand for investment residential properties and end-user homes in the country’s financial capital has remained stable. The ever-increasing number of second home buyers within the city and the firmly entrenched – and admittedly vindicated – mind-set that real estate prices in Mumbai will never go down will ensure that the stability of Mumbai residential real estate market will continue.

Ramesh Nair, Managing Director – West, Jones Lang LaSalle India 

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Integrated Townships In Pune

Sanjay BajajTownships are a concept whose time has definitely come. In Pune, buyers are now open to residential property solutions that allow them to circumvent or reduce the impact of the city’s challenged infrastructure.

The Advantages

Integrated townships are, by nature, self-sufficient and self-supporting in most civic and social infrastructure aspects, and are patronized by an up-market segment of property buyers.

For these reasons, they also tend to have evolved and well-equipped medical care facilities within their premises, as well as linkages to healthcare facilities outside the townships. The existence of these medical facilities is a significant value-add for today’s health-conscious residential property buyers.

Apart from self-sufficient infrastructure, many of the townships in Pune also offer a walk-to-work concept since they tend of have a mix of office, retail and residential components. They tend to feature generous landscaping, serene environment, schools within the campus, big club houses, health club facilities for both indoor and outdoor sports, multiplexes in the vicinity, health care, restaurants and large swimming pools.

These are rather effective enticements for those who are evaluating the option of buying into a township against a smaller residential project.

Not All Easy Sailing

The development of integrated townships is a highly capital-intensive undertaking. They are launched in phases so that the development remains viable to the developers. Capital generated from sales of preceding phases funds the next phases.

As a result, many newer townships tend to have a work-in-progress aura about them. On-going construction can be an inconvenience in some cases. Townships take a long time to reach completion; residential property buyers and investors need to track progress closely. Only the overall absorption of finished units can give a reliable indicator of likely completion timelines for buildings still at the planning stage.

Buyers should also be aware that there is a 10-15% premium mark-up on the cost of homes in integrated townships, and that annual outgoings for maintenance also tend to be steeper than for normal properties.

Major Townships In Pune

The major existing townships in Pune are:

  • Paranjape’s 120-acre Blue Ridge in Hinjewadi
  • City Group’s 400-acre Amanora Park Town
  • The 400-acre Magarpatta City (almost completely sold out)
  • Kolte-Patil’s’ recently launched 450-acre Life Republic near Hinjewadi
  • Kumar Builders’ recently launched 102-acre Kul Nation at Manjri
  • Kumar Properties and Avinash Bhosale Industries Ltd (ABIL) 150-acre Megapolis at Hinjewadi (almost completely sold out)

A Note On Plots In Integrated Townships

Townships are planned communities, so there are usually specific norms about the size, configuration and architectural style that need to be followed. Plot owners will usually not be able to detract very far from the existing norms while constructing homes there, since the purpose of an integrated township is to provide a uniform, well-balanced neighborhood.

Sanjay Bajaj, Managing Director – Pune, Jones Lang LaSalle India

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Jones Lang LaSalle India Appoints Nitish Bhasin As Managing Director – Office Brokerage Business

JLL PR

A Strategically Timed Move To Capitalize On Improving CRE Sentiments

New Delhi, May 8 2013: Leading international property consultants Jones Lang LaSalle India announced today that the Firm has appointed veteran CRE (Corporate Real Estate) specialist Nitish Bhasin as Managing Director – Office Brokerage Business (Markets).

Nitish BhasinPrior to this appointment, Nitish Bhasin had consistently delivered a sterling performance as Managing Director for Jones Lang LaSalle India’s Delhi NCR operations. He brings to the table an impeccable track record and tremendous experience in office leasing and innovative deal structuring and is an expert in renegotiations, sale/purchase, sub-leasing, sale and lease-back transactions.

Anuj Puri, Chairman & Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle India, said, “Nitish Bhasin is fully equipped to strategize and execute end-to-end real estate solutions for our corporate real estate clients. His appointment in the key role of Managing Director – Office Brokerage Business is an important move by the Firm to drive best practices, further strengthen service efficiency and reinforce our commitment to our clients.

Nitish is fully wired into the commercial real estate markets in Delhi NCR, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Mumbai and beyond, and will play a pivotal role capturing the wealth of CRE business that once again defines these markets.”

“I agree that this appointment comes at an opportune time for all concerned – most significantly for our clients,” states Nitish Bhasin. “The commercial real estate market is currently at an important inflection point, and replete with opportunities. Capital valuations in Bangalore and many sub-markets of Mumbai and NCR are going to rise over the next six months.

Investment sentiments are improving visibly in markets like NCR and Mumbai, with most of the capital targeting prime office real estate. We will leverage the opportunities inherent in these market dynamics on behalf of our domestic and international clients.”

Nitish further explains that rental values are set to pick up in Hyderabad, Pune and select sub-markets of NCR and Mumbai.

“This is consistent with the latest average vacancy levels in these markets vis-à-vis the national average and other markets in India,” he says. “Across cities, there is a visible trend of commercial developers responding to demand contraction through supply correction, thereby reducing the historic supply overhang.

These are indeed exciting times for commercial real estate in India, and I look forward to the challenge of translating the adrenaline into real-time opportunities.”

As Managing Director of Jones Lang LaSalle’s India Office Brokerage business, Nitish Bhasin will focus on optimizing the real estate portfolios of the Firm’s clients and growing its market share across the various regions in India.

His expertise in scouting out latent transaction opportunities and innovative deal structuring, and his strong relationships with both the occupier and the developer communities across India will be invaluable in terms of the Firm’s constant drive to maintain and build upon its leadership position in the market.

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