Archive for the ‘2011’ Category

How about Turkey….high return, low risk ?

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Kivanç Erman - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Dr. Kıvanç Erman
Jones Lang LaSalle Turkey

As you may be aware, Turkish Real Estate markets have been subdued for the last three years.

Since the beginning of the economic crisis, we have been arguing that Turkey will be able to profit from this turmoil as we are the only country in Europe which did not spend a penny on the banking system. In 2009, when the crisis was much deeper, the Turkish retail sector has seen a net real growth of 20% with projects delayed but not cancelled. Turkish banks had piles of cash and nowhere to put it, therefore we did not have a cash squeeze either. Although our stated prime yield (speculative of course) was 8% for retail & offices, we are ready to bring it down to 7.5% in the first half of 2011 and most probably to 7% at the year end. Thus, in such an environment, it is expected to have a huge interest from the international investor, looking for a high return / lesser risk.

Whilst I arrived in MIPIM with a few spare slots in my diary, inevitably I ended up with no spare time left due to speculative client meetings. I observed a huge demand from international institutions, not only for existing schemes but also for developments as well. This MIPIM, I think the Turkish team met the most possible number of clients, local & international. Zorlu’s sponsorship of the opening cocktail party was a Turkish team success, namely down to our Chairman Avi Alkas, and this was an important event to make people remember Istanbul & Turkey.

It was not only the Turkish team who promoted Turkey but also our Pan- European Capital Markets team, in particular Jeremy Eddy as well as our Retail CEO Robert Bonwell. We all worked together to illustrate to international investors that Turkey has changed and is now similar to a unicorn in that you don’t believe in its existence and it is something you can only dream of. I personally talked about at least five possible deals that we couldn’t have even dreamt of a year ago and this is hopefully a good sign of what’s to come this year.

The Russians are coming…… again!

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Jeremy Eddy - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Jeremy Eddy
Jones Lang LaSalle

Thank goodness for that. The slightly conservative event that MIPIM has been over the last couple of years has seen a boost again this year with a much larger Russian contingent. This market has its obvious attractions of strong growth and scalable city markets market. Russia has attracted cyclical investment to date from a limited investor base, however we believe this year will see investors taking significant positions in what is Europe’s most accessible BRIC economy. Similarly Turkey, ULI’s number one investment destination in 2011, exhibits the same growth characteristics and a burgeoning real estate sector.

Both these markets appear to have appeal for return driven investors, however the principal challenge in terms of further internationalisation of the market and real delivery on this appeal, would appear to be to avoid the “all that glitters is not gold” analogy. As we have experienced in these markets the biggest tangible risk is vendor related, with irrational pricing decisions, unappealing ownership structures as well as inconsistency in technical and legal aspects, the reward is clearly not without risk.

However we believe that now is the time for these markets, having missed out during the last cycle. More challenging is the business case for the North African markets, many of whom must have taken up the MIPIM early bird booking form! Many projects in this region are now looking extremely ambitious from a financing perspective however we have been reassured that as things settle in these economies and the outlook becomes clearer, occupiers and developers are poised to take advantage of the latent potential of these underdeveloped markets.

The great news is that we have real strength in Russia, Turkey and indeed the MENA region so wherever the action is we will be there.

The sun has nearly set on a busy MIPIM

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Tim Edghill - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Tim Edghill
Jones Lang LaSalle

The sun is setting on the croisette in Cannes on the Thursday of MIPIM and so the wind down of the week begins. MIPIM so often sets the tone for the market going into the second quarter, so a positive week is all important.

Happily it has been positive. In fact upbeat. Everyone remains cautious and no one expects improvement overnight, but there is a clear sense of opportunity in the market and a will to find the way to make things happen.

I was at dinner last night with, among others, James Caan, ex of Dragons Den and firmly wearing his Hamilton Bradshaw hat, Tom Bloxham of UrbanSplash, Alan Tripp of LIM, Nick Jopling of Grainger and Nigel Turner of Kier.

So Private Equity, Housing Developer, Institutional Fund Manager, Residential Investor and Commercial Developer with a PFI business. An eclectic, clever and diverse set of Investors, and yet they shared a common view. That there is real opportunity in the market across all their sectors and that whilst the credit markets will remain tight and economic uncertainty abounds, the real estate sector can move forward and that the gathering momentum from last year will remain.

It has been the same all week. Operators like Regus are optimistic about the recovery they are seeing in key markets and looking to expand, people are on the M&A trail again, joint venturing and the pairing of capital to good operators is high on everyone’s agenda and lastly there are new market entrants. Perhaps the most upbeat sign of all.

Certain sectors shine brighter than others, and of course there are contrarian views.

Indeed, we all recognise that this recovery will come with fits and starts. That transactions will remain very hard to close and that capital aspirations and economic reality remain divided, but if the earnest and engaging discussions of the last three days do set the tempo for the market in 2011, then we should all be busy.

Busy making connections. Busy bringing smart capital, good opportunities and the right expertise together. Busy being smart intermediaries and guiding our clients as to how they take the best positions in challenging times for a strong future.

Sun, Sea, Sand and Real Estate

Friday, March 11th, 2011

James Brown - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
James Brown
Jones Lang LaSalle

What could be better? All in all a good week at MIPIM. Cautions optimism in the air compared to the pre-crash blind optimism that caught so many out.

From an EMEA retail perspective, UK, France, Germany and the Nordics still appear top of investor agendas. However there is no lack of appetite for other EMEA markets, including: Russia, Turkey and even recently troubled North Africa, which for some there is strong belief that once the dust settles significant opportunities still exist.

Warren Buffett said that it is only when the tide goes out that you can see who has been swimming without their trunks on. Well, the tide is now coming back and it is very much ‘back to business’. Availability of debt remains a hurdle and some may not make it back into the water, but those that do are right to remain cautious of where and when to swim.

After a good week it’s time to pack my trunks and head home.

Speculative Developments are riding high!

Friday, March 11th, 2011

Marie Gilmas - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Marie Gilmas
Jones Lang LaSalle

In a market which is increasingly competitive for core product and with improving conditions in the leasing markets, investors are turning towards alternative investment opportunities. As such, speculative developments have recovered and in 2010 represented 12% of the total office investment volumes, equalling €792 million and 11 transactions, an improvement of 2.5 on 2009!

Following on from the activity of institutions and REIT’s, which relied on their own funds or credit lines, 2011 is likely to see the return of opportunistic investors and bank financing. In a market with two-speed characteristics between pre-let and speculative projects, yield compression is likely to be observed on pre-let developments.

Based on my discussion with players in the markets this MIPIM, I believe that the tertiary market in the Ile de France region will be one of the first to recover and will be in line with the demands of users and investors.

MIPIM Musings : Corporates seek sustainability and productivity

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Lottefier Vincent - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Vincent Lottefier
Jones Lang LaSalle

As I stood outside our marquee waiting for our guests to arrive, I could not help but take a dig at the famous cliché “MIPIM is only for developers and investors”. With over 50 corporate occupiers from leading European conglomerates, the writing on the wall was clear – Corporates do attend MIPIM, especially the ones with a strategic and long term perspective.  They use it as an “insight laboratory” to get a first hand feel of the flow of capital, product development, developer mindset, market views and other real estate indicators that will serve as enablers in planning their future strategies.

The theme for our lunch was “Sustainability  -  back in the boardroom”, presented by our Head of Energy and Sustainability Services, EMEA – Julie Hirigoyen. The session was relevant and well timed. Most occupiers were feeling the pressure from their C Suite on this topic and were seeking solutions. The other insight which I managed to unearth from our clients was the need for Productivity – EMEA corporates are wrestling with the dual challenges of growth and the right sizing of their real estate portfolios (music to my ears since this was one of the 4 key findings of our Global Corporate Real Estate Survey), hence they are seeking mechanisms whereby they can do more in a smarter fashion i.e. Productivity. Lastly, I also picked up that their role within their organisations is transforming into a “service provider to the business” model. Which means they are now looking for partnership solutions from firms such as us to help solve their business imperatives.

In tune with the theme for the afternoon, we shared our latest thought leadership pieces – the Global Corporate Real Estate Survey and EMEA Corporate Occupier conditions on flash drives with our clients. Sustainability in both thought and action!

Now as I rush to meet another set of corporate occupiers…seven of them to be exact, I smile back at the famous cliché “MIPIM is only for developers and investors”. Think again!

International investors are back in the market!

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Stephen Von Barczy - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Stephan von Barczy
Jones Lang LaSalle

The re-internationalisation of the market continues with an increasing presence of American, South Korean, Kuwaiti and Qatari investors.  I have witnessed a new trend in the market as German open funds, traditionally highly active in the acquisition market, have increased their disposal activity, accelerating the natural rotation of their assets.  This is being attributed to the effects of a booming market or to a real need to generate liquidity.  As a result these funds are net sellers for the second time (2006 being the first time this was observed).

Insurance companies and pension funds seeking returns more lucrative than government bonds are particularly active too.  French REITs have made the most of the market conditions as well. Private investors have reinforced their strong positioning regarding secure assets of between 5 and 30 million Euros. Opportunistic and value add investors are progressively coming back, even if many have confirmed to me that they are being held back by a lack of supply adapted to their business models.

On the demand side, I think that French investors – fuelled by an improvement in their capacity to invest – and to a lesser extent by German investors, will constitute the core of the market. Considering available assets, I am betting the high level of demand we have witnessed in 2010 will remain stable.

MIPIM is back in full swing

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Steve Collins - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Steve Collins
Jones Lang LaSalle

With the fast rebound of the core global real estate markets, the international property conference known as MIPIM is back in full swing.

This time, I have taken my life in my hands and decided to bring along a high profile contingent of US investment sales and finance colleagues who, for the most part have never been to Cannes for this yearly trek.

It is interesting to watch their response as they witness the power and presence of Jones Lang LaSalle at MIPIM. A flavour of the kinds of clients and potential clients they are meeting: the CEO of Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund, the President of one of the largest closed end funds, the chief investment officer of the Russian Federation, the global head of funds for a large open ended German fund, the newly anointed head of a High Net Worth family fund from the Nordics, the list goes on and on.

Thanks to our EMEA colleagues at Jones Lang LaSalle, we are able share these relationship freely and often. The JLL marquee is truly one that everyone here (around 19,000 delegates apparently this year?) knows the location of. It seemed like all of them were anxious to get into it yesterday and I am sure today will be just the same!

There is a common belief that MIPIM is one big party and only about drinking champagne on the beach all day. And while there is to a certain extent some of those elements, the individuals from JLL “working” at MIPIM are doing just that – working. Early mornings, late nights with many meetings in between will ensure JLL’s presence at MIPIM will continue to be a success.

I am sure we have some more colleagues from the US who will be ready willing and able to come next year, so watch this space.

The future of offices: what matters to our clients?

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Bill Page - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Bill Page
Jones LanG LaSalle

I’m at MIPIM this year to get the view from our clients and industry contacts about the future issues affecting the office sector across EMEA.

Their answers will form the basis of the next 12 months of research in our Offices 2020 campaign. So what have I learnt?

The first, and most compelling thing, is that in 10 years’ time office sector practioners will probably still be reluctant to take part in research surveys.

But apart from that – and joking apart we have had some great responses – the following themes have quickly emerged:

The workplace and sustainability – two separate but interconnected themes. To be honest we expected these to be the most “popular” but all respondents have homed in on these as being the key issues for consideration: What will the true enablers be for sustainable real estate? And what will these mean for building life cycles and asset strategy?

What will truly enable workplace change – and what will this mean for specification and fit out?

But our industry is not just concerned with changes in sustainability and the workplace. There are other key factors on the Radar:

An inflationary environment and implications to rents and returns. Commodity prices and their impact on both development AND occupancy costs. How the landlord/occupier relationship will change and the impact on tenure and lease lengths. Where will the greatest changes to European labour catchments be…..

The list goes on. The future of this vital sector is dependant on many external forces  - but also on innovation from within. The two combined will shape the sector. And over the next 12 months we will find out exactly how and why these changes matter to our clients TODAY. To borrow the phrase from our Retail 2020 campaign: “Change is coming, are you ready?”

To take part in the survey and help shape the direction of this research (it takes no more than 5 minutes) please click here.

To view our Offices 2020 website, please click here.

MIPIM brings more meaningful business

Thursday, March 10th, 2011

Karl Persson - Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by:
Karl Persson
Jones Lang LaSalle

Tuesday was the slow starter day with a lot of handshakes, but last year’s slightly nervous handshake is now much warmer, friendly and a “lets do business” kind of handshake. I can feel it in the air. We will do more business in 2011 than 2010 and MIPIM is a perfect first barometer of the year for this.

My Nordic colleagues and clients are full of energy – people want to buy and want to know what we have that could be interesting for them. There is lack of product for the majority of investors. Can Jones Lang LaSalle change that? We are certainly working to! With our global network, knowledge of capital flows, extensive global research network, plus our “on the ground” expertise we can deliver and we do. In 2011 we will find new ways to source both investment opportunities as well as capital.

It is easy to say that in our local market we have our institutions and our local buyers who will continue to buy. These local buyers accounted for 90% of all acquisitions in 2010, but we are expecting the market to start to change. In a client meeting which ran on until 11pm at night, we and our client were very much in agreement that there is huge opportunity if we all start to look beyond the traditional routes we have all been taking in the market. In the past year secondary assets have been difficult to finance but now this has started to change. We have not yet seen a clear yield shift in secondary but we do think that will come, probably in the second half of 2011.

Within the retail sector we will see a lot of capital inflows, and also some centres/units that will risk going under/receivership – this is particularly a risk if centres are not efficiently asset managed … crash, boom, bang!  However by the same token that gives new owners a lot of opportunity to find new ways to create value and new innovative offers for both customers and retailers; the old saying is true – every cloud has a silver lining. And on the prime side of things we expect there to continue to be a shortage of product.

So, what does today have in store?  We will be meeting international clients; existing and of course hopefully a lot of new ones.  We are hosting a Swedish lunch at the Jones Lang LaSalle marquee. Over forty high performance property people and decision makers from Sweden will join us for lunch and hopefully some lively discussion about the future of the industry in the region.  A big focus for us is to introduce Swedish investors to the international market via meetings with our Pan European, French, Dutch and US colleagues. And we will also be meeting the Swedish airport authorities together with international investors to discuss the the best way to upgrade and develop our airports.