Jones Lang LaSalle | Notes from Davos

The mood has been good at this year’s World Economic Forum. As Axel Weber, UBS chairman and former head of the German Bundesbank says, perhaps the mood has been too good. So, what can I take home?

Almost the whole developed world is now following the concept of quantitive easing. It seems all the larger economies, except China, are pretty open about the fact that they want their currency to devalue. The world is flooded with money and this will continue to be the case. Just this morning (Saturday), the Japanese minister of economics confirmed that his country plans to increase the money flow significantly to turn around their deflationary economy. There was agreement amongst all leaders that the overall economic risks have slightly declined. Or, to put it in other words, confidence has grown. But, if confidence grows across the board then this overhang of liquidity will find its way into assets. That’s more of a medium-term perspective, but even in the short-term the economic outlook for 2013 looks good for the US and we can expect another 8% growth for China. Europe still looks dull, the unemployment rate continues to rise. Average GDP across the EU is forecast to contract by another 0.2% this year, with growth between nil to 0.3% in the UK, France and Germany. Still, it looks that Europe is stabilising and stability will allow corporates to adjust and build for the future. Not a bad perspective for business after all.

Personally, I had the opportunity to meet numerous new business contacts, which certainly makes the effort of the last few days worthwhile. Moreover, I had the pleasure of listening to some great personalities, heard lots of very diverse views, and will leave Davos with my head full of new impressions and ideas.

If there is anything which makes me feel uneasy then it is the impression that none of the European leaders, whether from politics or business, have a real roadmap on how to reduce youth unemployment in Europe. Over the last months, I have read a lot about the lost decade for Europe. Millions of Europeans between the ages of 16 and 30 are unemployed with very little hope for change. There is a real risk of a lost generation. Even with a more stable economic outlook, this remains the great cloud on the horizon. To help find genuine solutions to this burning issue is more than enough reason for another World Economic Forum in 2014. I look forward to providing more perspectives from Davos next January.

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As I am not yet 80 years old, or even 64 years old (see yesterday’s blog), I managed to get out for another interesting day on Saturday. I started by participating in a discussion about genomics and how it may be used to help cure cancers and other diseases. Genomics has great prospects but has not yet delivered on the dream, because its predictive impact is unclear and its cost remains very high. As well-read as I try to be, this is clearly beyond my field of expertise, so I will not try to expand further on the subject, as interesting as it is to me.

Next I listened to Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank and former President of Dartmouth College (my alma mater) talk about his agenda at the World Bank. His primary focus is on climate change and preparing the world for the change which seems increasingly inevitable and which the consensus seems to be will be produced by a four degree Celsius temperature increase by 2030. This is part of the World Bank’s fundamental mission of alleviating poverty. The poor are the most vulnerable to climate change, largely due to its expected impact on food prices and the availability of fresh water. For skeptics, Kim notes that 97% of scientists agree on the broad conclusion that man is inducing climate change. He is both an MD and Ph.D in Anthropology, and he says that this level of agreement amongst scientists is almost unprecedented.

Perhaps the most immediately relevant discussion was a panel on the Global Economic Outlook with Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF; Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada and soon-to-be Governor of the Bank of England; Yi Gang, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China; Akira Amari, Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy of Japan; Trevor Manuel, Planning Minister of South Africa, and Angel Gurria, Secretary General of the OECD. The phrase that was agreed on to define the general tone was a “Sigh of Relief.” There are no immediate crises that need to be addressed, and this is a distinct improvement over the last few years. With that said,  there is ”Risk of Relapse,” and Lagarde said that we can not relax. Carney added that the tail risks have been reduced but not eliminated.

China came in for significant praise for reinvigorating its GDP growth to a projected (by the IMF) 8.0% rate in 2013 while also rebalancing its economy to an increasingly domestic consumption focus and a shrinking current account surplus.

The U. S. has improving GDP growth prospects, which the IMF expects to be 2.0% in 2013. Monetary policy is expected to be  expansionary to facilitate fiscal consolidation until the U.S. economy achieves lift-off velocity. Lagarde made the point that the U.S. has achieved significant fiscal consolidation already, much of which isn’t fully understood, and that she expects U.S. fiscal consolidation to continue. There was a consensus that the decision-making process is the risk in the U. S., not the country’s financial condition or growth prospects.

There seemed to be broad support for Japan’s recently announced stimulus program intended to boost GDP by 2% and reflate the economy at a 2% per annum target through infrastructure and  programs aimed at the country’s social fabric.

The Eurozone’s GDP is expected by the IMF to be 0.2% in 2013, and there was an acknowledgment  that unemployment was still rising across the Eurozone, and that Italy and Spain remain fragile.

There were a few comments that the financial crises of the last few years had distracted the world from addressing climate change head-on, and that we are on a collision course with nature.

What really struck me was a comment from the moderator, Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, that since 2007 the developed world, in aggregate, has experienced no economic growth. In contrast, the developing world experienced 30% GDP growth, and China experienced 60% GDP growth over the same time frame. For 2013, the IMF expects China to grow by 8.0%, the fastest in the world, and Africa to grow by 5.7%, the second fastest in the world (with an acknowledgment that Africa is many separate countries). This prompted a conversation about whether the developing world has uncoupled from the developed world. The answer for now is no; the developing world needs a strong developed world. However, it is an intriguing question and it makes one question some of our perceptions of risk  and growth in the real estate investment world.

In summary, it may still feel as if we are Dancing in the Dark, but we may actually be on the first step of the Stairway to Heaven (economically at least).

All the best,

Jon

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As things began to slow in Davos today, I spent an educational day attending, among others, two sessions devoted to behavioral topics.

The first was on decision taking, with experts talking about the different sorts of decisions that companies take.

For example, there are ‘serial’ decisions, which rely on deep expertise, skills and learning. These are the sorts of decisions taken hourly by doctors, lawyers and pilots, and many areas of real estate execution fall into this area. Ideally such decisions are taken by highly skilled, highly trained people who are experts in their fields.

By contrast, there are completely different decisions, which are unstructured and complicated, where skills and expertise in a single area actually don’t help. Here, the idea is to rely on a mixed team of people with diverse backgrounds and skills, who view the problem by contributing all of their different styles of thinking. The key skill is to boil down an issue to a few really critical factors and choose between them.

Where these decisions move a company forward, they’re often best taken by mixed teams of people who are ‘controlled optimists’, individuals who can see possibilities, are optimistic about being able to achieve them, but are also suitably realistic about potential difficulties.

A final point that the presenters made was that, when you look back over the last two years, and when you think about all the problems the world has faced – from slowing business in China, to political stagnation in India, to the fiscal cliff in the U.S. and problems in the Eurozone – you begin to see that the business and investment world has been systematically too pessimistic. That has affected decision making and prevented progressive and growth-oriented decisions. We did see that in our global client base, and the feeling in the education session was that everyone feared the worst would happen and, surprisingly, it didn’t.

So lots to think about there!

A second session looked at the future of education and focused on new generations coming into the workforce, the people we will continue to need to build and grow our business through 2020 and beyond. The conclusions here dovetailed nicely with a discussion about why, almost worldwide, the current generation of 19 – 24 year olds is finding it so difficult to find work in line with their qualifications and expectations.

This could be ascribed to the recession, and the lack of business confidence it inspired. But there are probably more structural issues at play:

• The disappearance of mid-level jobs in organizations, which were typically where young people learned their skills for operating in teams in a business environment.
• The sudden and rapid demand by employers for people with fully finished, narrow skills coming into the work force: people with degrees in Accounting or Computing, not ‘Global Politics’.
• The 60+ generation, whose members are staying in the workforce longer, because they need to fund their own, increasingly long lifespans. That in turn slows the progression of future generations through the workforce.
• The structural approach of companies controlling their costs very tightly, leaving little room to accommodate new and inexperienced people.

These trends begin to explain why it’s hard for the current generation to find its way into the workforce. The solution for them is to grab experience in any form: serial internships, starting a small business, or staying in school longer to build credentials.

Moving on….

One lesson that I came back to throughout the week was to trust your instincts. As I said in my first note, my initial impression on arriving in Davos was that the confidence of business worldwide was definitely higher than two years ago. Everything I’ve learned this week has confirmed this. The euro is under control. The U.S. economy is ready to take off for 3% growth, absent any more political meltdowns. And Asia Pacific will have no trouble beating 2012 growth figures everywhere. So our world looks much “less worse,” to quote the famous gloomy economist, Nouriel Roubini. For JLL, it means we can be confident in our continued commitment to controlled growth

Enough theory and policy, back to clients. I spent time today with an Indian client who wants to sell projects in four Indian cities. I talked with a major Indian industrialist who is already a good client for our investment management and leasing businesses. Signing our major contract with HSBC on Wednesday led to my spending a half-hour at breakfast with Doug Flint, HSBC’s Chairman, cementing our relationship at that level. I had a long beer with the CEO of Heineken, with whom we’ve been looking to do business internationally. I had a very pleasant conversation with a Belgian industrialist and investor who is becoming a good client of our Brussels office. And in of those strange coincidences, I ran into the CEOs of three major HR staffing and consulting firms: Mercer, Manpower and Adecco.

I rounded out the evening with our principal banker, the Bank of Montreal. The guest of honor was Mark Carney, who was the head of the Bank of Canada when I met him at each of these dinners over the last five years. He has just been appointed head of the Bank of England, and is a good contact for the firm.

That’s it for Friday. I’m sure you’ve had enough of this by now, so I’ll send you a short note over the weekend to round out the week.

Best wishes, and thanks for taking the time to read these notes,

Colin

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A few highlights from a long day/night.

“All very interesting but how can we make more money?” After listening to a long, high-level breakfast discussion between senior diplomats from China, South Korea and Japan about the geopolitics of  “China and its neighboring countries,” this was a Russian businessman’s unsmiling and sole contribution to the panel debate.

A keynote session on “Women in Business,” with the Head of the IMF and the CEO of Facebook amongst other panelists…60% of US graduates are female, 50% of graduates entering business are female, 20% of top management are female. There is still a mid career “cliff” for women and the reasons are complex. But we’d better figure them out quick if JLL wants to remain the best.

The tail end of an indescribably dull lecture from an unelected Eurocrat on the intricate detail of how to make the Euro even more fun to administer. He concluded by saying that “Of course, pooled sovereignty” is the only real end game for Europe. Good luck with that.

A meeting with the Vice President of Myanmar (How cool does that sound!)…in a small private session surrounded by American venture capitalists. Big progress in that country, a long way still to go.

Three receptions tonight as a guest of the Vietnam, Malaysia and India delegations. Good fun. Met the Minister of International Trade and Industry for Malaysia, which could be a really useful contact as we are keen to grow fast there.

Anyway…I am now done as I leave tomorrow morning. So what to make of all this?

I think the term “Cautious Optimism” is becoming a bit of a cliche but it does for me reflect the mood in Davos. Just a few of the many reasons why there’s…

Caution

• Western debt problems not resolved, just can-kicking
• Youth unemployment a big issue
• The tensions between Japan and China are very real
• Several other risks to world growth

Optimism

• Every single person I spoke with or listened to felt better about the world economy and business conditions than they did 12 months ago. Not just most of them – all of them.
• A new pragmatism to solving the complexities of doing international business. Taking the small bites from an elephant rather than staring at it and endlessly planning a big idealistic gulp.
• Fewer fear factors to delay decisions and a strong desire to crack on and make some money (as per my Russian friend above)
• Companies more likely to take property decisions
• Investors more likely to buy and sell with confidence
• From an Asia Pacific viewpoint: China (and therefore Australia), India and South East Asia seem confident of growth and Japan at least trying to join the party.

And finally, if Jon, Christian and Colin gave out as many business cards as I did (and I know they did), then Jones Lang LaSalle is an even better known business than it was three days ago…which ultimately will be good for business.

With kind regards to you all, good night,

Alastair

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“Will you still need me, will you still feed me, when I’m 64?” These Beatles lyrics were conveniently used to illustrate some of the issues around aging that were discussed in a “preparing for aging” discussion session. I say conveniently because it is in keeping with the rock music thread that I have tried to maintain through these blogs. Interestingly, if Paul McCartney were writing today and wishing to be biologically up-to-date, the lyrics would finish with when I‘m 80. Ignoring the fact that the lyrics wouldn’t sound quite right, it is a reflection of the tremendous increases in average life span which have occurred in the last fifty years.

Although Davos is addressing some of the other critical issues faced by the global community today, such as growing income inequality, the deteriorating natural environment and the conflicts in Syria and Mali, the aging population in many countries is one of the most important issues that the world is facing. In an interesting conversation that included the Minister of Labour of a major European country, the Finance Minister of another European country and the head of the national pension plan of a major Asian country, we concluded that a healthy financial support system for aging populations should combine public and private savings plans (the Australian superannuation scheme received recognition for being both mandatory and fully funded), extending the age at which benefits should start to be paid and encouraging greater financial literacy regarding the importance of retirement savings.

An interesting, if sobering, statistic that was quoted, which I may not repeat completely correctly, is that one percent of UK adults have a retirement plan and only twenty percent have thought at all about retirement planning. Other critical elements that are important are quality healthcare, particularly in the preventative medicine realm, and increasing the percentage of women in the workforce. The women in the workforce point is particularly important in countries such as Japan, where the retirement system will struggle to cope with a retiring work force when the active workforce is primarily male and thus the number of active workers is smaller than it would be if more women were in the work force. One of the rating agencies in attendance made it clear that all of these things factored into how they evaluate a country’s sovereign credit rating.

The last element that we discussed was the importance of professional investment management. Although real estate did not come up in the conversation, it is ideally suited to pension plans given the increasingly long-term nature of their liabilities and the stability of real estate cash flows. We can have an important hand in this increasingly important issue and we, as a firm, should ensure that we do participate in this debate.

This evening I joined a dinner with Larry Summers, previously U.S. Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard University, Laura Tyson, previously Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors and Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria on the topic of “Can Capitalism Evolve?” The answer is clearly yes, but it is difficult to summarise and the specific desired outcome varies by culture/country.

One last comment on aging. The definition of someone who is old is “someone older than me”.

All the best,

Jon

Video: Jon Zehner discusses global real estate investment outlook at WEF

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Davos has developed the tradition of very early business breakfasts. Leaving the hotel before 7am, -10°C in the Alpine breeze feels more like -20°c. Making my way through security, the excellent Thursday night party hosted by one of the major management consulting companies is still echoing in my head, but the topic of the breakfast discussion immediately gets everyone up to speed again.

How are new technologies changing business? The level of connection between businesses and their clients, as well with their employees, is unprecedented. It creates total and immediate transparency. Clients and employees are able to tweet, chat or blog their views instantly, especially when they have a criticism or a concern. The individual becomes more powerful. Due to the internet, Twitter and other social media, one person can bring a company down, or just as importantly, can make a make a brand, product or company more popular. Companies need to embrace this into their thinking because any reaction to a negative tweet already places them on the defensive. However, the opportunity to take advantage of these new communication tools is enormous. The level of collaboration between businesses, employees and clients offers the fantastic opportunity for continuous improvement of a product or service, without having a massive R&D department. It is the Wikipedia approach. Wisdom from the crowd.

Ironically some of these advanced approaches are in fact quite conservative. In the case of Wikipedia there is a massive number of hardworking contributors who have proven to be very reliable. I strongly encourage you to bring forward ideas on how we at Jones Lang LaSalle can better embrace the opportunities of this new kind of collaboration between our clients and our 45,000 colleagues around the globe.

Unfortunately it is not only the day after a brilliant party, it is also the day after Mr Cameron reinforced his plans on Britain’s EU membership. Last night the Atlantikbruecke, a traditional German organisation trying to foster the Transatlantic relations, gave its debut reception at Davos. We were honoured by the participation of several high ranking German politicians and CEOs. The special atmosphere of being trapped in the deepest basement of the main Congress Hotel created a unique environment for straightforward talking. No one denied that Cameron is right that the EU needs a major reform in order to refocus on the bigger picture and leave the rest to the individual member states. Still, there was an element of shock in the room that Cameron put the whole EU at risk for short term political gains. Well, the world will move on and hopefully this referendum will never take place. A telling reminder of the real bigger picture came from Mrs Merkel in her speech yesterday.  She pointed out that the EU, including Britain, will soon represent just 3% of the world population and the economic, political and religious environment is not getting easier out there. I ask you, should we plan to face these challenges on our own, or together with our cultural allies?

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A wonderful start to the day.

I was halfway through my wake-up coffee at the conference at 7am this morning when out of the blue I received an exuberant greeting from an Indian lady…”Alastair! I just KNEW you would win it…I’m SO delighted…I can’t wait to see Anuj!!!”.

She is the Chair of the Board of HSBC in India (for anyone at Jones Lang LaSalle who has been on the moon for the last few days, she was referring to our 58-million-square-foot global IFM win the bank announced earlier this week).

I was then, for old times sake, drawn to a couple of sessions on the future of the euro and what not, with big speeches from several European leaders. I will,of course, resist getting involved in a discussion on the politics of all this. David Cameron was brilliant.

After a series of client and press meetings I refocused back to Asia and went to a debate on “East Asia” with politicians and businessmen from China, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and South Korea. They dismissed with bemused disinterest the Euro-babble which had made the headlines all morning…and then quickly got into a lively discussion about how to make more things to sell to the huge and growing consumer base in China and South East Asia. All very positive. Lots of statistics…only one stuck…another 200 million Chinese to move from farms into cities over the next 5 years.

I then got a text from an Indian I met yesterday inviting me to a 15 person round table discussion with India’s Minister for Commerce,Industry and Textiles. I of course was honored and attended. I am sure my contribution will not change the future direction of that great country one little bit–but I did manage to say “Jones Lang LaSalle” 8 times in the discussion.

There is a large Indian contingent at Davos, and the mood from them is clear and consistent. One of our Indian clients described the business community in India as “bipolar…we are either bursting with optimism or massively depressed…we are right at the point of transition from very gloomy last year–to raring to go in ’13.’” This was echoed by the Minister who stated with great conviction that the Government is back on the reformist track and very confident of higher than 7% GDP growth this year (after “only” 5% last year).

[Note to self....check Anuj's 2013 budget for India].

Alastair

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Well, there was no White Rabbit today, but there was a polar bear on the street and a person ringing a cow bell, with no cow in sight.

There were many high profile speakers: David Cameron, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany. Cameron’s speech was a day after his speech announcing a controversial referendum on remaining in the European Union, if his Conservative Party controls the next Parliament. Both Merkel and Cameron emphasised the need for business growth, with the need for flexibility of both political and economic varieties. Making companies pay their fair share of taxes featured prominently in both speeches.  Concern about economic inequality featured in Merkel’s speech and has been a serious theme in many conversations and presentations.

Having lived and worked in Africa for several years, I have attended a few African panel discussions and events.  Listened to the Swedish Finance Minister declare that Africa is the next China. Africa’s economic growth today is second only to China’s. There is concern and debate about Mali, but generally a positive tone about Africa’s prospects.

Participated in a discussion on Impact Investing. I am not sure of the exact definition of Impact Investing, but it is roughly not just having a pure profit motive in making an investment, but also wanting to cause good things to happen for a community. Certainly seems as if it is a good idea and apparently there is good investor interest, significantly from high-net-worth individuals and foundations. Lots of discussion about how to measure the societal good component of impact investing. There was significant agreement that the profit aspect and the societal good aspect are strongly correlated and not mutually exclusive.

I was interviewed on Davos TV today, with Colin, Christian and Alastair volunteering me for the role. I can only think that they regard me as the most telegenic!

By the way, the polar bear wasn’t real; it was robotic.

All the best,

Jon

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First, what I didn’t do today: It wasn’t a day for economic topics, which I’ll pick up on again tomorrow, and which I’m sure Jon, Alastair and Christian will cover in their comments.

And I could not attend the presentation by ‘Mutti’ Merkel (‘Mother’ Merkel, as she is called in Germany), and that was a disappointment. I see the German Chancellor as the prime reason for the Eurozone holding together and think that she will also be the prime reason for the situation’s ultimate, successful management.

What I did do today was meet with more clients, and also attended a session on how the digital era in general and mobile information in particular are reducing gender inequality and narrowing the divide between women and men in the workforce. Their thesis was that digital technology and easier information availability within companies is now giving women equal access to the same information within businesses.

In addition, the increased use of smartphone technology, and of mobile computing through iPads and laptops, is allowing increasing numbers of people to access their work from anywhere. Working from flexible locations, and at flexible hours, allows them to be as effective as when they were chained to one desk location. This ability to work flexibly, and balance work and family commitments, is one factor which helps women to continue working. This is of real importance to our own company, since we have a critical need to drive up the proportion of women progressing through to middle and senior positions in the firm. Tailoring the work environment to help their needs is important to us.

Another lesson from the presentation is that, for people in many parts of Asia, Africa and South America, mobile technology — most often a simple smart phone — has become the principal gateway to the Internet. This becomes their access to mobile banking that allows them to make simple deposits, payments and manage their finances, and gives them access to education, and to healthcare resources and health information. This, too, is vastly improving the ability of women to progress, not only in society in general, but into the workforce as well.

So an interesting session, where, by the way, I was also able to meet the woman CEO of a potential client.

In a session this afternoon, I learned that the world suddenly has an abundance of fossil fuel energy today, thanks to the very long-term development of fracking technology, which is now releasing vast amounts of gas from rock, even in places and countries which never had oil reserves. This is rapidly changing the supply and demand characteristics of energy economics, putting increased power into the hands of energy consumers. These are carbon-based gases, however, and so not a renewable energy source. It is cleaner than coal, but not a solution to long-term issues of global warming and climate change. The topic clearly touches our business through our efforts to help clients manage their energy needs efficiently in the real estate we manage for them. I hope cheaper energy does not reduce their resolve to build and manage efficiently.

Back to David Cameron for today’s final thought. I particularly liked Christian’s blog comments about Mr. Cameron’s proposal for a future referendum on Britain’s EU membership. As Christian pointed out, and many here have echoed today, this impacts confidence, and has introduced a dose of uncertainty into the business community with respect to investing or expanding in Britain. That could have an impact on direct real estate investment and could certainly have a knock-on effect on corporate investment, and therefore on demand for space in the UK. Viewed from an economic, rather than a political, perspective, Mr. Cameron seems to have spoken before considering the consequences for the business world, which he needs to create jobs.

Enough for today, see you tomorrow

Colin

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One of my personal highlights from last year’s conference was an outstanding dinner speech by London’s mayor, Boris Johnson, at a Barclays event. This year, I was therefore especially delighted to again accept Barclays’ invitation, as the speaker was no one less than Nicolas Sarkozy. Imagine a room of about 60 people, high up on a mountain, no entry for any journalists and a former President at his best.  He presented himself as a passionate supporter of the European Union, he convincingly described the importance of the Euro–far beyond of just being another currency–and put it into the historic context. He did not circumvent any of the excellent questions being thrown at him.  He used his full body for bringing his points across, he was thoughtful, highly entertaining with a quick sense of humour and superb timing.  It was great to watch the reactions of his close ally, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, while he was speaking.

Mr Sarkozy comes across as a man who is full of energy, a man who can afford to diminish the importance of diplomacy and political correctness, a man who came unshaved to talk to a group of pretty senior people. Not everybody will have agreed with all of his views, but he deserved the highest respect for his clarity and openness. The disconnect and dissatisfaction from the public towards their politicians would certainly improve significantly if we had more of that.

Obviously Mr Sarkozy’s views were strongly contrasted by those of the British prime minister, David Cameron, who gave his ‘Europe’ speech during the morning. Unfortunately I couldn’t attend from the beginning, but I would like to highlight the question asked by a BBC reporter during Q and A. She took lots of applause when putting to Mr Cameron that he is not a good salesman for the UK as he has effectively said during the last 24 hours that any business considering investing into the UK might be faced with a country that is no longer part of the EU within the next 5 years, and he further commented that if a company still wants to come it will have to pay more taxes and it will be under severe public scrutiny to actually do so. Mr Cameron replied stating that he acts in the best interest of Britain…obviously he was well shaved and to his credit the room was packed with journalists, nevertheless he clearly could not convince much of the audience. It cannot be in the best interest of Britain when its leader puts European unification and all its benefits at risk for a short term political gain.

The last 24 hours have given me so much to write about, I could go on for quite some time, but business is calling, I have to run.

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