Archive for November, 2010

Beyond the BRICs

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Stephen Daniels Jones Lang LaSallePosted by: Stephen Daniels
Senior Researcher, Retail Research & Consulting
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Research

There’s been a lot said about the BRICs in recent years, particularly about retail. It’s true that they are still powerhouses for growth: Russia is back on the map and China continues to grow as only China can. But our experience at the MAPIC conference in Cannes last week highlighted that there’s another world out there, a bigger one, and one that goes beyond the BRICs.

The so-called CIVETS – that’s Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa – were talked about a lot and now retailers and developers alike are gauging which of these have the best prospects for growth. Their economies are maturing and politically they are relatively stable, but the key factor for retail is the projected growth of the middle class. A developing middle class is inimitable news for a retailer looking to develop their business. The middle class love to consume.

In one speech, Debenhams spoke of the importance of these emerging markets to their growth strategy. They already have interests in Vietnam, Malaysia and Iran. Meanwhile, some of the busiest stands at MAPIC were the Egyptian shopping centre developments such as Cleopatra Mall, Cairo… and it wasn’t just the traditionally adorned Cleopatra models that were grabbing the attention! The scheme is a perfect example of what modern shopping centre development is all about: mixed use, superlative service provision and a destination environment. Shopping centres with valet service, free broadband, hotels and even aquatic shows are where retailers want to be. Furthermore, these schemes are slowly correcting the shortage of quality real estate in these markets – a problem which is still an issue but no longer a major barrier. As the real estate continues to improve, better domestic franchise partners for foreign retailers will also emerge, further increasing the appeal of the market.

To us, the message is that significant growth in traditionally core markets will be difficult in these straightened times and the real opportunities will come from further afield. Of course, more mature markets like Poland and Sweden still offer much potential, but don’t be surprised if over the next few years more of our well known brands dip their toes into the Chile’s, Lebanon’s and Turkey’s of this world.

Retail 2020 – The Big MAPIC Debate

Friday, November 19th, 2010

Richard Bloxam Jones Lang LaSallePosted by Richard Bloxam
Director, European Retail Capital Markets
Jones Lang LaSalle

As MAPIC entered day three with the sunshine trying to breakthrough it was time for the Jones Lang LaSalle Retail2020 panel discussion.

The debate was kicked off with a film star performance from Guy Granger – befitting a truly packed auditorium (standing room only for late arrivals).  Guy cantered through three chapters of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Retail2020 programme: Easy Shopping, End of Silent Retailing and Going Beyond Retail.

This set the scene for our high calibre panellists to debate some of the changes we expect the shopper, retailer and real estate owner to face over the next 10 years.

The panel included luminaries from the world of retail – Scott Abbey (Footlocker Europe), Richard Collyer (Abercrombie and Fitch), Marcus Wild (SES Spar European Shopping Centres and ICSC), Josip Kardun (ECE) and John van Haaren (Corio).  My job was to facilitate the debate and get the panellists to proffer their opinions – of which there were many.

The discussion was lively: do fashion retailers see augmented reality as genuine driver of sales? Will retailers pay more rent for centres investing in experiential environments and technology? Is ECE going to role out its Cat Show crowd pleaser in Lodz Europe-wide?  And most importantly would Abercrombie introduce a new comfort fit shirt range for the larger shopper?

Audience participation was lively and at this early stage in our Retail2020 programme made it clear that they believed the retail real estate industry is yet to truly embrace technological change.  That Social Media is going to become essential in reaching customers for both retailers and landlords.  And finally that despite the changing environment, landlords’ drive for short-term returns is going to restrict long-term performance.

All in all a really good debate – lots of positive feedback from the audience afterwards.  It was a great reminder that if you blend a truly exciting and challenging topic together with exceptional expertise on the panel you cannot fail to have an entertaining, informative and engaging discussion.

Jones Lang LaSalle’s MAPIC Party Was Just the Ticket…

Friday, November 19th, 2010

Adrian Peachey Jones Lang LaSallePosted by Adrian Peachy
Head of UK Retail Investment
Jones Lang LaSalle

Jones Lang LaSalle’s MAPIC drinks reception at Pavillon Croisette was blessed with a beautiful Mediterranean sunset last night. The venue looked excellent; it was a real presence on the Croisette our Retail 2020 theme which has been so dominate throughout MAPIC and was highly visible.

425 guests had already confirmed and they were swelled to around 500 with late arrivals. The pan European turnout was incredibly strong – it was definitely the event to attend on Thursday night.

I had picked up some themes throughout the week and decided to test them on colleagues and clients. From an investment perspective there is deep equity chasing shopping centres. The UK is a big focus but Germany is the rising star. In the conference centre there were many extremely ambitious retail developments. Some of the scaling and concentration of schemes proposed look a little worrying. The polarisation between prime and secondary is not just a UK phenomenon – Spain is also a clear example of this.

From a letting perspective, retailers were well represented, including key Jones Lang LaSalle retailer clients: it was difficult not to notice the semi clad Abercrombie models, whilst Superdry was somewhat more conservatively dressed!

But the message was clear across Europe that retailers in 2010 and 2011 are here to do business and not just drink rosé! Another theme that emerged is that landlords of stronger schemes are pushing back on shorter lease terms.

At the party there was a real debate on Retail 2020. Both the UK retail market and Jones Lang LaSalle are seen to be at the forefront of the debate as to how best to challenge and embrace technology.  Some key points on this are, technology experts need to be employed by retailers and shopping centre developers – for example Footlocker employs gaming industry specialists.

The myth that the older generation will not adapt to social media is being dispelled. This is probably just as well, as in Germany 70 per cent of the shopping population are OAPs!

Looking at design and management it is good to see developers accepting a reduction in the ratio of net sale space to common areas. This combined with the strong push towards Event Management provide welcome recognition that shopping will be seen as a form of entertainment in the next decade.

Galleries Lafayette wins my award for imaginative marketing for using 4,000 customers to model clothes from its fashion retail outlets with a real life catwalk down Rue d’Antibes.

Let’s close with an anecdote – one landlord was telling his daughter that when he was a kid he didn’t have a computer.  Looking at him incredulously she said – but dad, how did you get on the internet? Change is coming, and from the vibe in the room last night looks like we’re ready…

MAPIC 2010 – The German Retail Investment Perspective

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

Joerg Ritter Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by Jörg Ritter
Head of Retail Investment Germany
Jones Lang LaSalle

To be honest, 12 months ago MAPIC was not an outstanding or exiting experience from the perspective of a German retail transaction adviser. The German market was quiet, transaction volumes were low and people were generally not feeling very secure. A lot of investors and developers simply stayed at home.

So how is it feeling this year? As I arrived yesterday morning at the Palais des Festivals for the first time I was surprised at the huge number of visitors already there and the high footfall in the aisles of the exhibition. You could actually feel and see a busy and positive atmosphere right from the word go.

And from a business perspective? Although transaction volumes nearly doubled in Germany in the first three quarters of 2010, the market was driven mainly by domestic investors. But the first (very busy) day at MAPIC has made me think that this is going change.

From an international perspective Germany seems to be the ‘best in class’ economy in Europe – attractive for high profile retailers to expand into and for international money to invest in. The appetite for core plus / value add products seems to be back. Investors are starting to look for product where there is a need for intelligent asset management. And – of course – a huge number of core buyers are still active as well.

If MAPIC can be seen as a barometer to the retail investment market, then I believe that we are going to have beautiful weather over the coming months in Germany; something I am looking forward to!

China is coming!

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

Guy Grainger Jones Lang LaSalle

Posted by Guy Grainger
Head of Retail UK
Jones Lang LaSalle

China is coming! Unfortunately I cannot tell you who and when, but established domestic Chinese retailers are now seriously considering international expansion. It further emphasises how the international retailers are likely to shape our retail landscape over the next ten years.

Perhaps more concerning are the number of uk retailers now viewing expansion into europe as an alternative to further expansion in the UK. Have some of our best known names reached saturation in our mature market?

JLL held a debate today at MAPIC on our Retail 2020 project – what does the future of retail look like? On the panel, Abercrombie and Fitch, Footlocker, ECE, Corio and ICSC.

Utterly conclusive that social media and other online networking is necessary for retailers and landlords to attract their customers – however the property industry is playing catch up.

This is outside our comfort zone but if you are going to beat the competition this tool needs to be in your armoury. Come on folks, its time for us to modernise, or be left behind.

After a strong 2010, high hopes for 2011…

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Jeremy Eddy Jones Lang LaSallePosted By Jeremy Eddy
Director, European Retail Capital Markets
Jones Lang LaSalle

So MAPIC 2010 – a slow fog-bound start for those of us leaving the UK, but also an opportunity to chat with friends, colleagues and competitors on the plane as we sit for over an hour on the ground at Nice.

This is my 15th MAPIC I think, and probably my most organised yet, though admittedly not a result of my own planning.  Generally my nature is to rebel against the rounds of organised back to back meetings, as I usually gain more from spontaneous meetings on the Croisette or in the bunker (or at least that is what I have convinced myself).

With the market picking up pace since EXPO REAL back in October I expect a flurry of deals to be announced either here or in the coming weeks. The European Retail Capital Markets team at Jones Lang LaSalle has had a truly outstanding 12 months. You will see from the flyer at the panel event and on the stand that we have been involved in the vast majority of landmark deals this year, a testament to our client focus last year and execution in 2010. I am really proud of our performance.

We expect the strong finish to give Europe a total volume figure for 2010 of over €20bn (Q3 figures at €15bn) which would be the largest volume since 2007, albeit much of this achieved in Germany, France and the UK.
We expect to close perhaps six more deals before year end and have a great pipeline going into 2011.

Over the next few days the Retail Capital Markets guys and I will be trying to close out these transactions and presenting some of the interesting deal opportunities to our clients for the first quarter of 20II.

Investor attendance feels a little lower this year, with some notable absentees. Those here who really do mean business will benefit from seeing a positive attitude from retailers, driven by a new wave of exciting expansive brands. I expect to see our excellent agency colleagues really busy at this MAPIC, from Moscow, Istanbul, Finland and closer to home – all of which are essential to drive confidence and transactions across all markets.

Austerity not the reality

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Guy Grainger Jones Lang LaSallePosted by Guy Grainger
Head of Retail UK
Jones Lang LaSalle

Flying out to MAPIC this morning, I will be joining a much larger UK contingent this year.

Of course 2010 has been a very active year for retailers and owners, much better than predictions. Hence there is a confidence from attendees.

The cautious headlines about austerity have not become a reality. The question everyone is asking – will 2011 be any different?

The one certainty is that International retailers now play a fundamental role. Once committed to UK expansion their criteria are completely different to most established domestic retailers.

Their priority is to gain market share quickly. The likes of Forever 21 and Hollister are a breath of fresh air and it is not surprising that landlords are bending over backwards to accommodate them.

Hence, I am on a quest to find the next big thing….. assuming there is one of course.

I will keep you posted – all will be revealed.

MAPIC 2010 Day One – The Debrief

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

Posted by: James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Research

The challenges of our outbound journey from the UK yesterday are a distant memory after good food, wine, a good night’s sleep and a busy day at the conference.

Despite the appeal of the flawless blue sky and the mild weather outside, there was plenty of footfall inside the Palais. This year there are circa 7,000 delegates, about 10% up on last year. 2,000 of these are retailers‬‪. Overall numbers may have dwindled compared to the pre-crash world, but the broad intention of attendees is clear – to get back to business.

Core western European markets are still on the radars of expanding retailers, but so too are other emerging markets with good fundamentals and growth prospects, such as Poland, Russia and Turkey. Even those markets with a challenging economic outlook provide some great opportunities for retailers looking to expand or looking for new markets. The focus is still however on prime locations, which is also reflected in the investment market. Opportunities exist, albeit the landscape has changed.

How we adapt in this change post crisis market will be debated tomorrow morning at the Jones Lang LaSalle facilitated Retail 2020 Panel debate entitled, ‘Winning in the face of change’ (Palais, Auditorium K, Level 4). Jones Lang LaSalle colleagues will be joined on a panel by senior representatives from Abercrombie & Fitch, Corio, Footlocker, ECE and SES. Tomorrow’s panel discussion will provide an interesting insight into retailer, investor and developers responses to the changing retail landscape.

All in all it has been a very productive day and a good start to MAPIC 2010.

Pre MAPIC Musings

Tuesday, November 16th, 2010

Robert Bonwell Jones Lang LaSalleBy Robert Bonwell
CEO EMEA Retail
Jones Lang LaSalle

As I travel to Cannes for MAPIC and contemplate what to expect this year, four thoughts come to mind. Firstly 2010 – it’s been a much better year for retail of course.  Meaning economically in comparison with 2009, development-wise in some markets and refurbishment in others, and a refocus on the true values of running of shopping centres as businesses – suddenly asset management is king again!

Whether you are a retailer from the USA, Turkey or a franchise partnership from the Middle East, there have been lots of opportunities in new and existing countries to continue your expansion, but it’s harder to find the turnover and profit numbers in some locations. I hope the mood at MAPIC for 2010 reflects the general positive sentiment.

As for 2011, I heard someone comment that the year would be “normalised”, but I have to disagree. I think we will see capital markets continue to improve and I think the retailers will be strong; however, it’s going to be even harder to calculate how to balance risk and return as well as working out how to drive asset management. So one of my aims at MAPIC is to use our Retail2020 programme not just to look over the next 10 years but to gauge the sentiment for the nearer term, in other words 2011.

Finally I think of France, this year’s country of honour at MAPIC, which is still one of the most powerful retail countries in Europe. France’s position on the European stage will remain strong, thanks to its strength of quality retail investors and developers, its regional and global power via supermarket brands and an unrivalled position in the luxury goods brands. But internally it needs change – planning restrictions on development, the need for new shopping centres and brands all mean that France has an opportunity to move to another level and step well ahead of many countries in Europe.

Here’s to a great MAPIC 2010!

Not More Retail, but Better Retail

Wednesday, November 10th, 2010

Posted by: James Brown
Head of EMEA Retail Research
Jones Lang LaSalle EMEA Research

Last week started with the BCSC Annual Conference and Exhibition in Manchester.  There was an air of optimism surrounding the event, and if anything, whilst not unaware of the risks, there was increased confidence that the economic recovery appears to have some traction and that the risk of a double dip is receding.

Signs of some development schemes were re-emerging (albeit reworked), and retail leasing deals looked to be back underway, amidst a general feeling that we are getting back to business. There was plenty of discussion around online retailing; the increasing need for lease simplification; the need for local government and local business to work more effectively together; and the acknowledgement that we are at the beginning of a period which will see significant change in the consumer and retail landscape. The debate, then, is live and underway. The industry is well aware of the challenges, but between now and BCSC 2011 a response will need to follow.

The week finished with the ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centres) Annual European Research Seminar in Amsterdam. Again, there was no denying that we are about to face a period of significant change. That the combined socio-economic and technological drivers will have inevitable influence on the physical retail environment was accepted. As at BCSC, the underlying message was that a response from retail and retail property owners to these changes will be needed. Online will not replace the human need to interact,  and physical environments will still play a dominant role in the retail landscape but follow a ‘convenience’ or ‘destination’ strategy. Online will increase competition and in this heightened competitive environment, retail venues must continually adapt in order to provide the right mix of transactional retail and consumer experience.

Whilst the last ten years may have been about wanting ‘ more’ the next will be about wanting ‘better’.