Archive for the ‘Urban Development’ Category

Then and Now: A Brief Snapshot Of The Bonifacio Global City

Wednesday, March 20th, 2013

I remember when I first saw Bonifacio Global City (BGC) back in 2006 when only a handful of developments could be seen in the area – a stark contrast to the present-day bustling district that it is. For quite some time, the BGC district served as my home and I was able to witness its transformation into one of the premier emerging urban districts (EUD) in Metro Manila today.

Prior to 2006, the BGC was host to only two office developments with a consolidated office space of approximately 39,000 sqm. From 2002 to 2005 there was a lull in office development in the district but construction picked up starting in 2006 when an additional 29,000 sqm was added to the existing stock. Between 2006 and 2012, approximately 510,000 sqm of office space entered the district, outpacing the supply in Makati and Ortigas CBDs. In the coming years this trend is expected to continue as the district is projected to account for around 43% of the total upcoming office supply in Metro Manila.

The growth of residential developments in the district has outpaced that of the office sector. Early residential developments were mostly in the high-end and luxury segment such as the Pacific Plaza Towers, Essensa, and Regent Parkway, among others, while subsequent years were dominated by the mid-end segment. The years 2009 and 2010 were banner years for the Philippine residential market, when approximately 2,600 and 4,000 units respectively were supplied by the BGC district alone. In the next three years, the district is expected to add around 8,700 residential units to the total existing stock.

Approximately 180,000 sqm of shopping space is present in the district – a mix of a multi-level shopping mall and lifestyle centres. In the next three years an estimated 237,000 sqm of shopping space is expected to be added to the stock, serving as complementary developments to the nearby office and residential buildings.

The growing prominence of the BGC as a business hub eventually attracted hotel operators/developers to pursue hotel projects in the district. It was only in 2011, however, when the first hotel development (F1 Hotel managed by Best Western Premier) in the district opened but several prominent hotel developments are expected to follow suit, namely, Ascott, Shangri-La Hotel and Grand Hyatt. Altogether, these three hotels are expected to provide around 1,200 rooms by 2015.

One does not have to look far to see the significant changes that have occurred in the property landscape of the BGC district in only a relatively short span of time. Although I must admit that I miss the pockets of open spaces and the leisure drives that the former area offered, I am excited with the rapid pace of development in the district which is a good indication of the progress of, and the potential for, the BGC district in the years to come.

About the author
Janlo de los Reyes is the Senior Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

The Formula Behind Formula 1 In The National Capital Region

Monday, November 26th, 2012

In terms of planning and execution, the Formula 1 race in October 2011 showed the coming of age of India and outlined the importance of the Indian market in the current global environment with its consumption potential. With the second race completed last month, it is appropriate to wonder if the event could bring about a fundamental shift in the Indian real estate scene and if sporting events could act as a fulcrum for future development. Large sporting events such as the Olympics and Soccer World Cups have resulted in new infrastructure and the upgrading of existing infrastructure, while also providing the motivation for re-development or new development towards a city’s peripheries and suburbs. A similar scene is currently unfolding in Greater Noida, where the F1 event was held at the Buddh International Circuit. Greater Noida is an upcoming suburb that has yet to emerge as a significant contributor to the vibrant real estate landscape of the National Capital Region.

The 15-km radius around the track is a veritable smorgasbord of development, featuring modern office projects and proposed social and physical infrastructure initiatives, headlined by golf communities and numerous residential projects. The recently completed Yamuna Expressway offers an excellent connectivity and an unhindered drive to the location.

The excitement of the first race caused an increased number of residential launches and office project announcements. With the race promoters, expressway developer and operator and the largest land rights holder being the same business entity, the overall development plan for the area is massive. The grand plans include the creation of a world-class cricket stadium and an integrated sports city, which will span over 5,000 ha (approximately 50 million sqm), educational institutes and night safari besides integrated townships by various developers. The race track and other planned sports infrastructure are expected to encourage associated industry development and a corresponding interest in residential accommodation, providing the economic engine for growth in this region. Investors have shown interest in putting their money in one of the more affordable sub-locations in NCR with appreciation expectations based on a homogenous and planned city ecosystem.

The second race saw less interest amid questions about viewer fatigue. The investment activity also showed signs of easing off. Overall development progress is the actual differentiator. A long term development agenda has been set in motion based on an annual event. An overall boost to infrastructure growth cannot be achieved by a short-term planning horizon. The expected results and the delivery of projects will determine if the event will change the face of this suburb and leave an indelible mark.

The race has acted as a catalyst, but the future depends on the vision of the promoters, they being the largest stakeholders in this region. In the past, similar large projects have struggled with financial strains and legal and environmental hurdles. Treating the future development merely as an opportunity to speculate on land values instead of a chance to create actual properties with excellent infrastructure would be another case of an enterprise being limited by its leadership’s vision.

About the author
Rohan Sharma is the Senior Manager for Jones Lang LaSalle in India, based in Gurgaon.

The Rise (Of Flood) In Metro Manila: Lessons And Opportunities

Friday, August 24th, 2012

Metro Manila experienced heavy flooding again following days of torrential rain in the recent weeks. The amount of rainfall rivaled that brought about by the tropical storm Ondoy three years ago. The widespread flooding in Metro Manila in 2009 not only affected the real estate values but was instrumental in reshaping urban development trends consequently.

Physical damages and emotional stress from such continual flooding have added to the strong demand for high-rise accommodation. As of August 2012, the total number of new residential condominium units which will be made available within the next three years is more than 142,000 units. As high-rise accommodation presents a better housing alternative for urban dwellers, the developers are also looking for locations that are less prone to flooding. This has led to an observed increase in real estate values in certain areas, where new communities could be established.

While the flooding and the need for high-rise accommodation seem inevitable, a more balanced and holistic development should be advocated. The infrastructure (including adequate drainage) and support facilities and services should be sufficient to provide a more sustainable growth of these high-density developments/precincts. Indiscriminate development without concern of the local social and environmental impact could not only result in further degradation of the community and quality of the environment, but led to imbalanced sprawl and artificially inflated real estate values, which could have far more damaging repercussions in the future.

At the same time, this phenomenon presents a new venue to review and look at how other neighbouring countries have resolved the issue of balanced development in providing affordable and safe accommodation, especially for the low- and middle-market segments. Flood-prone areas are not necessarily ineffective to rebuild, but new technologies and measures to minimise the adverse impact of frequent and damaging flooding on property developments should be introduced in the process.

With a more conscious commitment to providing balanced urban and property development, the movement of real estate values is sure to follow a steady, long-term growth path, while the inefficiencies that may be brought forth by indiscriminate building will also be minimised.

About the author
Claro Cordero Jr. is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Maximising Gains In The Philippine Property Sector

Friday, June 1st, 2012

The news about the growth of the Philippine economy is also positively affecting the Philippine property market. Theoretically speaking, improved economic fundamentals have a direct effect on the sustained growth of the three major growth drivers in the Philippine property market: offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) activities, overseas Filipino (OF) remittances and the tourism industry receipts.

The country posted an impressive 6.4% GDP growth rate in 1Q12, the highest in the ASEAN region and the second highest in Asia. The level of remittances from overseas Filipinos went up by 7.2% to a new record of USD 20.117 billion in 2011 from USD 18.763 billion in 2010. In 1Q12, OF remittances grew by 5.4% y-o-y to USD 4.8 billion while visitor arrivals jumped 16.0% y-o-y (approximately 1.1 million) after seeing a record number of visitor arrivals at 3.9 million in 2011.

The bright prospects for a continued economic and tourism growth, coupled with the upgrade by credit rating agencies (Fitch (BB+), Moody’s (BA2), Standard & Poor’s (BB and positive outlook), and the Japan credit rating agency (positive outlook) suggest that local and foreign investors’ confidence of the country has improved. This heightened confidence is expected to fuel the growth of property-related demand in the short- to medium-term.

To prepare for these long-term gains, there is an urgent need to introduce structural reforms in the economy to maintain the momentum and sharpen the country’s competitiveness.

By introducing reforms in the educational system, we will be able to produce graduates, not just to match the demand from the O&O industry, but the demands from other developing industries. There is also a need to constantly review the performance matrix in the banking system to ensure a smooth flow of capital and investment from the public and private sectors (especially funds for developers and buyers). The other area of structural reform could involve improvement to infrastructure and transportation systems such as the construction and upgrading of telecommunication infrastructure, link roads (including farm-to-market roads to link rural areas to urban cities) rail systems, and overall improvements to the airports to minimise business disruptions.

For as long as the economy grows at its current pace, the optimism in the property sector is likely to continue. The early gains in the economy should temporarily shield the country from the external economic shocks brought about by the continued slump in the eurozone area and the slow recovery of the US market. The bigger challenge is thus to capitalise on the positive market sentiments in the local economy to advance the long term economic growth plans, attract more investors and strengthen the major drivers of the property market.

About the author
Claro Cordero Jr. is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

What Makes China’s New CBDs Successful In The Long Term?

Monday, May 21st, 2012

Cities throughout China are in various stages of developing new Central Business Districts (CBDs), following the example set by the development of Shanghai’s Lujiazui in Pudong. We are constantly being asked by investors and developers to assess the development potential of these new CBDs, most of which are expecting to see a supply influx in the next two to three years. As illustrated below, many cities will witness a sharp increase in Grade A office stock in the next three years as they go through a new construction boom.


Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Real Estate Intelligence Service

Such a rapid pace of expansion is very likely to result in a temporary oversupply situation. However, by looking at some successful new CBDs, Lujiazui in Shanghai, SIP in Suzhou and Zhengdong New Town in Zhengzhou to name a few, we can see that oversupply in the short-to-medium-term is far from a deciding factor in the long-term success of a new CBD, which might take over 15-20 years to be able to compete with a traditional CBD. So what is common among these successful new CBDs? What essentially made them become what they are today? We believe that it is continuous government support and dedication to these new CBDs through the whole development history that separates the winners from the losers. Successful new CBDs were prioritised areas for local governments to develop and as such enjoyed the most preferential policies and the largest government capital and resource allocation in their cities.

What we have often seen in many cities is that local governments make sound plans for new CBDs and then, after only a few years, shift their priorities to create other new CBDs, and this is mostly due to changes in leadership at the local level. A good example of this is Taihu Square in Wuxi. In the tenth five-year plan (2001-2005), Taihu Square in Nanchang District was designated as the only new CBD in Wuxi. However, starting with the 11th five-year period (2006-2010), Taihu New Town in Binhu District was named the new CBD of Wuxi and subsequently received the city’s priority for development. As a result, there was a significant slowdown in the development of Taihu Square in recent years with new projects being built at a very slow pace.

Generally speaking, there are many factors which drive a new CBD to be successful in the long run, including location, developer profile, infrastructure, accessibility, market forces, etc. In our opinion, the government’s long-term commitment to the development of a new CBD is one of the most important deciding factors for its long-term success.

About the author
Joe Zhou is the Head of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle in Shanghai.

Revitalising Bangkok’s Riverfront

Friday, May 18th, 2012

Given the wide network of canals and waterways that run through the city, Bangkok’s Chaophraya riverfront has historically played a significant role in the development of the city since its establishment as the capital in 1782. Transportation, commerce, government, tourism and education have all evolved along its river banks, but as the city modernised, the river and canal system gradually gave way to modern roads and mass transit infrastructure, which new development has followed. Although activity over the past few decades has generally moved away from the river, its continued role as a transportation artery and its natural endowments have brought renewed interest, with redevelopment starting to emerge along the river banks.

Certain landmarks along the river, like the Oriental Hotel established in the late 1800’s, and temples, have maintained their utility, charm and relevance. Other buildings have not stood the test of time so well, with many being demolished for new projects and as a result, high density residential developments have risen on both sides of the river near the Saphan Taksin bridge, where the BTS skytrain crosses to the Thonburi side. The riverside area now accounts for 10% of the total stock of condominium units in central Bangkok. Vacant land has also attracted new hotel and residential developments on the western bank which offer impressive views of central Bangkok’s evolving sky-line. River buses, cross-river ferries and water taxis offer quaint, but efficient transport from, across and along the river, feeding into the modern BTS skytrain system. The Bus Rapid Transport provides mass transport via dedicated bus lanes on Rama 3 Road and Ratchadapisek Road which follow and cross the river at Krungthep Bridge. In an increasingly congested city, these river developments offer a more open and natural environment.

Particularly in the core areas, where riverfront land is becoming increasingly scarce, we are seeing a new wave of modern redevelopment. A prime example of this is the new Asiatique retail complex on Charoen Krung Road. Developed in the early 1900s by the East Asiatic Company Ltd, the site originally housed warehouses and wharves dedicated to the import-export trade, but after lying idle for many years, the site has been brought back to life as a modern shopping centre, equipped with dining, entertainment and other facilities. The design and renovation retain the original feel, and allow both locals and tourists alike the chance to experience a unique riverside atmosphere. River City, renowned as one of the best places in Bangkok to buy antiques, has recently undergone a facelift and there are plans to bring the historic General Post Office (GPO) on Charoen Krung Road back to its former glory through restoration and an adaptive re-use as a mixed-use development.

As Bangkok continues to evolve, many areas across the city are witnessing new patterns of development. Given its history, natural endowments and improving infrastructure we are likely to see a re-birth of the importance of Bangkok’s riverfront, as the area recaptures its former prominent role in the capital’s skyline.

About the author
Dan Tantisunthorn is the Head of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle in Thailand.

Towards Sustainable Green Development In The Philippine Setting

Tuesday, March 13th, 2012

In recent weeks, the Philippines was in the headlines again when cnbc.com ran a story entitled, The Best Countries for Long-Term Growth, which was based on a report from HSBC, The World in 2050, citing the country as the world’s fastest growing economy in terms of the absolute size of its GDP over the next 40 years. The study prepared by HSBC examined the different economies which possess strong growth prospects in the future driven by inherent competitive advantages such as demographics, natural resources or geography.

This bright projection of the economic performance of the Philippines is complemented by the country’s efforts to introduce green or sustainable means of development. With the rising initiative to introduce environmentally-sensitive methods and technologies in construction, local stakeholders are now aware of the countless benefits which will result, not only in addressing the problems of climate change, but also in reducing construction and long-term property management costs.

In the quest to introduce improved systems of development, locally-available and ecologically-sustainable building materials to support effective construction designs have been re-discovered. The degree of energy efficiency and the ability to recycle other resources have increasingly become incentives to developers, as property management costs are significantly reduced.

The serious move to encourage sustainable development designs and buildings prompted the creation of a local ratings system called the Building Ecologically Responsive Design Excellence (BERDE) – the local counterpart of the US Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) design standards, in promoting green architecture and design. BERDE is aimed at considering the management (or upkeep) and heritage conservation of developments as well as formulating a unique metric – with emphasis on land use, storm water management, and access to mass transport systems – to measure the environmental impact in the context of the Philippines market and standards.

Various developers have decided to join this movement and several local governments have also given it their support by providing certain tax credits to encourage the development of effective and sustainable architectural designs, construction technologies, and property management systems. The success of this new type of development will certainly encourage more developers, with the help of local governments, to build better cities and communities. As the country is poised to become one of the more important players in the global economy, what is clear, for now, is that the success factors in maintaining the country’s competitive advantage are being enhanced by concerted efforts towards sustainable development.

About the author
Claro Cordero Jr. is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Bangkok’s Booming Retail Real Estate

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

In years past, a trip to the mall, even for some basic shopping, often meant a serious commitment of time – because one would often be stuck in traffic and have to search for a parking space – and then face a lack of choice in terms of both products and brands. Over the past five years, however, Bangkok has welcomed 1.25 million sqm of new retail space in new centres across the city, an increase of nearly 25%, bringing the Thai capital much closer towards its goal of being a shoppers’ paradise.

While the Ratchaprasong area still hold the title of Bangkok’s core shopping district, with high-profile centres like Siam Paragon, Central World, Gaysorn Plaza, Siam Discovery, and MBK, all within walking distance of each other, other areas and retail formats have mushroomed across the metropolitan area. Hypermarkets Tesco Lotus and Big C continue to prosper in both the city and the suburbs. The increasingly ubiquitous neighbourhood malls attract residents from increasingly affluent local areas, while specialty retail outlets in locations easily accessible by foot traffic and mass transit stations are benefitting from the ongoing urbanisation of Bangkok. Meanwhile, traditional street-front retail shophouses are undertaking facelifts to remain relevant in the wake of losing customers to modern retail malls.

Driving this trend is continued economic growth, rising incomes, and higher disposable income. Despite numerous negative factors, for example, political turmoil, the global financial crisis and recent natural disasters, Thai consumption has expanded more than 40% this past decade. Better mass transit infrastructure, particularly the Bangkok Transit System (BTS) skytrain, and the underground Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), has made it much easier to get around the city. Higher density and more upmarket residential developments across the city have created new catchments supporting the viability of neighbourhood malls. Finally, competition among retailers, from both established local and new international brands, is resulting in more space being demanded to support their expansion.

So far, most retail projects have enjoyed good returns but the impact of rising rental income on this modern retail boom and the potential pitfalls ahead have yet to become evident. Success does breed competition, and Bangkok will see an all-time record amount of supply in 2012 with over one million sqm in new and renovated malls scheduled to come on stream. Recent success has attracted independent and less experienced retail developers. However, sustaining a successful retail development in Bangkok requires a high level of expertise, proactive management, and innovation. In the near term, the robust consumer demand will mask the lack of experience of these new developers. Over the longer term, however, it will be important for these smaller players to step up to the game through targeted product offerings and active tenant management to compete effectively with the leading Thai retail managers and sustain the city’s long term retail growth.

About the author
Dan Tantisunthorn is the Head of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle in Thailand.

Fooling the Space Index: Strategic Densification of Mumbai

Monday, January 9th, 2012

Per the recent census of 2011, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region has over 23.5 million people. To house this population on the ground floor, assuming a household size of 4 and dwelling units of 900 sq ft per family which are laid wall to wall, we would need 121,384 acres of contiguous land. If all these houses are built facing the street (for access), providing a frontage of 20 ft to each unit, the total length of the street would be 35,606 kilometres!

Being the commercial capital, the city attracts not only migrants from all parts of India, but also has a high floating population which commutes to the city for work everyday. This high density calls for developments to be vertically stacked by design, with multiple functions layered one over the other. Still the case for increasing the Floor Space Index (FSI) in the city, which would enable more construction over the same land area, has always been met with stiff resistance on practical, sustainable and ethical grounds. Permissible FSI in South Mumbai is 1.33, while that in the suburbs has recently been increased from 1 to 1.33. Additionally, developers can purchase Transfer of Development Rights (TDRs) and construct up to a FSI of 2. However, this is low compared to global destinations, such as Singapore, New York and Hong Kong Island Urban Area, which have FSI of 5, 10 and 12 or above respectively within a radius of 10 kilometres from the city centre. What does this imply for Mumbai real estate?

Real estate developmental density in Mumbai has not kept pace with the growth in population density. Due to the huge pressure on its already scarce land resource, market forces have tended to circumvent the base FSI regulations and build more through ‘discretionary approvals’ in lieu of construction of civic amenities such as parking structures. Also, certain construction features, which were excluded from FSI such as balcony, flower-bed, voids and niches, were manipulated so that they could be utilised as habitable spaces post construction. These innovative circumventions of building regulations are nothing but ‘creative feedbacks’ by the industry.

Last week, the Government disapproved of these discretionary approvals for construction, and has come up with amendments in the Development Control Regulations. To increase transparency and remove layers of regulations, an all-in FSI calculation has been stipulated, which includes the FSI-free design features. In lieu of lost volume of construction, developers can build 35% extra (as Fungible FSI) by paying a certain premium to the Government. This could keep the construction volumes nearly the same, as developers used to overbuild nearly 25%-30% as FSI-free features. However, now, the developers would be more inclined to include this extra 35% as usable carpet area in the properties, resulting in better efficiencies in terms of carpet area to saleable area ratios. We could see more box-like residential towers which provide a maximum habitable area to the tenant, instead of lavish architectural projections such as balconies and other design features. It would also make the industry a level-playing field for developers, due to the purge in discretionary approvals.

The moot point to debate is: Is Mumbai building enough? Should FSI be increased from its current levels of 2 to 5 or 10? The issues are as much scientific and statistical as they are ethical. Some points to ponder:

• Strategic densification through a differential FSI regime based on micro-zoning instead of the current uniform FSI system is the key for balancing densities with infrastructure.
• Construction volume is directly dependent on the carrying capacity of developed infrastructure in terms of roads, water and power. Hence, permissible FSI can be mapped with projected completions of infrastructural projects, leading to zones or corridors of high-density development.
• Urban renewal should not be blindly incentivised by higher FSI, as it might lead to congestion in zones which have older properties.
• Strategic densification of suburban nodes could be explored as development of infrastructure is convenient at low-density locations.
• Premium monies collected for higher FSI should be compulsorily ploughed back through investments in infrastructural development.

About the author
Himadri Mayank is the Senior Manager, Research and Real Estate Intelligence Service for Jones Lang LaSalle in India.

Urgently Required: Affordable Condominiums

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

Despite the traffic congestion and high population (about 10 million people living within a 660 sq km area), many people are still attracted to Jakarta – the capital city of Indonesia. The city lights and the lucrative business opportunities together with the myriad of shopping spots, entertainment centres and a variety of educational institutions have drawn people to the capital, creating the urban density unseen in the past.

One of the major challenges faced by the city lies in the residential sector. Demand for mass market (i.e. middle-low and low-end segment) projects continues to outstrip supply as land prices surge on the back of limited development land. Traditional low density (i.e. landed house) development in the city is increasingly rare and like many other major metropolitan cities in the world, the Jakarta residential landscape is shifting towards higher density living (i.e. condominium development).

Since the 1990s, developers have been building condominiums in Jakarta. Currently there are more than 75,000 units in these condominiums, the majority of which serves the middle to upper class population. On the other hand, the demand in the mass market has not been adequately met despite over 50% of the total Jakarta inhabitants belonging to this income group who are in dire need of affordable homes.

A couple of years ago, Vice President Jusuf Kalla initiated the ‘Program 1,000 Tower Rusunami’ where the government invited state-owned companies and developers to build 1,000 towers of rusunami (low cost condominium) for eligible buyers from the middle-low income segment. Under this scheme, the government provided full support in terms of project permit assistance, infrastructure and tax incentives including down-payment and interest rate subsidies for loans. The reception was enormous reflecting the size of this segment.

However, the euphoria of the rusunami program did not last long as many developers were disappointed by the government’s lack of ability to deliver some of the incentives and assistance packages as promised to them. Consequentially, an alternative to the rusunami – anami was created by these developers. There was no subsidy or screening of buyers under this upgraded anami scheme. Despite the slightly higher prices, sales in anami developments in Jakarta have been quite strong, suggesting the huge demand for affordable city residential from the middle-low segment.

Jakarta surely needs more affordable condominiums like anami developments as another way to minimise the suburban sprawl. The massive development of suburban housing has generated externalities of heavy traffic congestion and inefficiencies – indirect costs that the city has to bear. Now is the time for Jakarta to look and learn from other neighbouring countries on how they manage the residential issue, especially their approach on the development of good and affordable residential homes including those for the mass market in the city. Ultimately, it will help increase the welfare of the city dwellers and also alleviate the transportation strain on the economy. It might be a long journey for Jakarta to be on par with modern and efficient cities like Singapore and Hong Kong, yet every single step how minute it may be, is a step in the right direction.

About the author
Fitrah Avianti is the Assistant Manager of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle in Indonesia.