Archive for the ‘Philippines’ Category

Importance Of Infrastructure In Sustaining The Philippine Real Estate Growth

Tuesday, June 11th, 2013

In general, infrastructure projects have a significant impact on the economy and are usually associated with physical development. These serve as a base for other economic activities, providing cross-sectoral benefits in the economy – including the property sector.

In particular, the presence of nearby infrastructure generally increases the attractiveness of any development. One general benefit of infrastructure to property development is enhanced accessibility. Accessibility has increasingly become a competitive edge for property developments in the country. The premium on accessibility is underpinned by the growing culture of convenience and efficiency, and reflected in part in the emergence of concepts such as live-work-play and mixed-used districts. This is evident in the growth of property developments along or near key infrastructure projects. In recent years, property developers have likewise integrated infrastructure facilities in their respective development plans. Not only do these generate traffic, which is crucial in creating and sustaining critical mass that may support these developments, but also it widens the catchment area of property developments. Formerly latent markets in the periphery areas may now be tapped, as ease of travel have bridged the geographical gap between the different areas in the metropolis. Altogether, these benefits from infrastructure influence property values, effecting price appreciation in adjacent areas.

Conversely, there are also drawbacks to these infrastructure projects especially on the property market. As developments cluster around these infrastructure projects, the increasing development density and traffic may outpace the capacities of these facilities and outweigh its benefits. A related by-product of this increased traffic is the increased noise and pollution, which may affect the quality of the environment and the attractiveness of property developments.

Unfortunately, the Philippines has been noted for its lack of infrastructures. Despite its relative robust economic growth in recent years, the country is considered a laggard among its Asian peers in terms of investments in infrastructures. According to the latest Global Competitiveness Report by the World Economic Forum, the country ranked 98 (out of 144 countries) in terms of the overall quality of infrastructures. The report also notes that this inadequacy in infrastructure is the third most problematic factor for doing business in the country. In response, the Philippine government has adopted a Private-Public-Partnerships (PPP) model to promote infrastructure projects that would support development in the country. Notable infrastructure projects that have been awarded include the North Luzon Expressway and South Luzon Expressway Connector Road and the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Expressway Project. If completed, these projects would decongest existing road and create new ones that may spur property development in various areas of Metro Manila.

While the property upswing is a welcome boon to the economy the lack of infrastructures in the country may impede the long-term growth of the property sector. Thus, it is imperative that the property sector be accompanied by the masterful placement of infrastructure if the Philippine property market growth prospects are to be maintained.

About the author
Janlo de los Reyes is the Senior Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

A Vote Of Confidence For The Philippines

Monday, May 13th, 2013

Today, the entire Filipino nation will exercise the right of suffrage — the much anticipated midterm and local elections, marking the start of the second half of the current administration. This momentous event coincides with the recent good economic news that has come the way of the Philippines.

The Philippines posted impressive GDP growth of 6.6% in 2012 and is expected to post a continued growth streak in 1Q13, as two of the pillars of economic growth — remittances from overseas Filipinos and tourist arrivals — posted strong growth in the first few months of the year. Remittances from overseas Filipinos grew by 6% y-o-y to USD 1.682 billion in February 2013 from USD 1.587 billion in the same period in 2012. Tourist arrivals for the first three months of 2013 reached 1.27 million, a growth of 10.76% from the 1.15 million tourist arrivals during the same period in 2012.

Just last week, the Philippines achieved its second investment rating upgrade from Standard & Poors, the result of continuing improvement in the economy, manifested in stable consumer prices, a better fiscal position and a strong external balance sheet. This came after the investment rating upgrade by Fitch Ratings in late March 2013, which highlighted the resilience of the economy amidst a weak global economy, improvements in fiscal management and a strong policy-making framework.

These investment rating upgrades are expected to improve the flow of investment into the Philippines in the medium- to long-term. One of the sectors of the economy that could clearly benefit from the potential surge in investments is the real estate sector. The investment rating upgrade could potentially boost the confidence of investors in various property products and investments because of stable market conditions and property yields.

While the potential increase in the level of investments in the property sector will also likely increase the level of risk due to speculative foreign investors, the government, through the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), has implemented new measures to ward off short-term investments and speculators in the property sector. The BSP is set to refine its existing regulations to include stricter provisions to limit the loans extended by banks to the property sector, including housing loans granted to individuals, credits extended to property developers and holdings of securities issued by real estate firms.

These two coinciding events — improvement in the investment rating and the local and midterm local elections — show the level of maturity of some of the country’s institutions. As the relevant institutions continuously adapt to the highly dynamic economy, the fruits of the investment rating upgrades and the credible results of the election will project even stronger confidence in the market.

About the author
Claro Cordero Jr is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory Services for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Las Vegas By The Bay

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

Commonly, when you mention Las Vegas, you think “casinos”. Even though a larger portion of the famous Las Vegas Strip actually sits within Clark County, outside the city limits of Las Vegas, the name sticks.

Over the past decade, Macau has established itself as a rival destination for the casino and gaming market. Today, the Philippines aims to establish itself as among the foremost destinations for casino and gaming by developing Entertainment City.

Entertainment City is a 100-hectare integrated resort complex that plans to offer a mix of hotel, retail and casino establishments on reclaimed land in Manila Bay. In contrast to nature-oriented tourist attractions in the Philippines, the integrated complex will be a destination that creates its own attraction through casinos and gaming.

The area is highly accessible, located a few blocks from Epifanio delos Santos Avenue (EdSA), a major artery that traverses the cities of Metro Manila, and Roxas Boulevard, one of Metro Manila’s main links to Southern Luzon. It is also located just 3 kilometres from Ninoy Aquino International Airport.

Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (Pagcor) is spearheading the development of Entertainment City, setting investment guidelines for its proponents. Foremost of which is a minimum investment commitment of USD 1 billion, with USD 650 million of this amount as an initial investment for the resort to start operations. Each resort must offer at least 800 hotel rooms, have a GFA of 250,000 sqm, with 20,000 sqm of retail space, and set aside a maximum of 7.5% of the GFA as a gaming area.

Pagcor has issued four licenses to operators for the development of integrated resorts within Entertainment City, namely Bloomberry Resorts & Hotels, Inc.; Melco Crown-Belle Corporation; Tiger Resorts; and Alliance Global-Genting Berhad. The planned developments include around 7,770 hotel rooms. If we use the Pagcor guidelines as a baseline, there should be a minimum of 80,000 sqm of retail space, along with gaming areas spanning 75,000 sqm, in these four resort areas.

Bloomberry Resorts & Hotels, Inc. is the first to proponent to open its resort project in Entertainment City. Phase 1 of Solaire Manila started operations in mid-March 2013, making available 500 hotel rooms and a 27,700-sqm gaming area. Phase 1A is slated for completion by 2014 and will add another 300 rooms to the resort. This is only a preview of what is expected to be the first large-scale integrated resort complex in the country.

Tourism arrivals in the Philippines reached 4.3 million in 2012, up from 3.9 million in 2011. The National Tourism Development Plan envisions that this number will reach 10 million by 2016 and Pagcor sees the development of Entertainment City as one of the means to achieve this vision. Entertainment City, with its world-class developments, can place the Philippines alongside the ranks of renowned destinations for the gaming-oriented tourism market, expanding the predominantly nature-oriented tourism market for which the Philippines is known.

About the author
Sharon Saclolo is a Research Manager for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Reflections From The Windows Of The MRT In Metro Manila

Thursday, April 4th, 2013

It has been ten years since I came to Metro Manila to study and then to work. As someone from the provinces in the Philippines, commuting in Metro Manila can be quite a challenge at first, but the presence of the Metro Rail Transit (MRT) has made commuting relatively easier. The MRT runs along Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA), one of the major roads in Metro Manila and a road etched in recent Philippine history as the site of the first People Power revolution. Providing convenience to many commuters and helping to reduce the traffic volume along EDSA, the MRT has become an integral part of many people’s lives in the city since it began its operations more than a decade ago.

Property developers recognise the importance of this infrastructure. Since residential condominiums started gaining popularity several years ago, developers have been constructing residential condominiums connected to or near MRT stations. As I ride the MRT to work each weekday and look out from its windows, I have watched the growth of the developments with a mix of excitement and concern.

As at April 2013, there are several existing condominiums, numbering around 5,500 units connected to MRT stations or located along the EDSA. During the next five years, more than 27,000 residential units that are connected to or are just several metres away from stations are expected to complete. Developers use the proximity of their projects to the MRT to attract buyers. After all, the MRT is connected to several established and emerging business districts in Metro Manila, such as Makati CBD, Ortigas CBD, Robinsons Cyberpark, Araneta Center, Eton Centris and the upcoming Vertis North.

At present, the trains are overcrowded during peak hours. In addition, some trains experience technical problems from time to time. Over the past decade, many plans to significantly improve the MRT and its services, which are usually associated to a possible fare hike, have surfaced. However, many of the plans have yet to be actualised. The MRT has contributed to the rise of property developments along its route. The average daily ridership of the MRT in 2012 was around 500,000 people and this number is expected to rise over the next five years as more residential condominium developments are completed. If the MRT remains in its current condition, property growth along the MRT could be affected in the future.

The real estate market in the country has witnessed unprecedented growth in the past few years. One of the key factors to sustain that growth in the long term is the improvement of infrastructure, such as the MRT. Hence, it is important that stakeholders prioritise the development and advancement of vital infrastructure, not just the MRT but other infrastructure as well, to support a more sustainable growth in the property market and the economy in the long run.

About the author
Jessica Mae Go is an Assistant Manager for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines, based in Manila.

Then and Now: A Brief Snapshot Of The Bonifacio Global City

Wednesday, March 20th, 2013

I remember when I first saw Bonifacio Global City (BGC) back in 2006 when only a handful of developments could be seen in the area – a stark contrast to the present-day bustling district that it is. For quite some time, the BGC district served as my home and I was able to witness its transformation into one of the premier emerging urban districts (EUD) in Metro Manila today.

Prior to 2006, the BGC was host to only two office developments with a consolidated office space of approximately 39,000 sqm. From 2002 to 2005 there was a lull in office development in the district but construction picked up starting in 2006 when an additional 29,000 sqm was added to the existing stock. Between 2006 and 2012, approximately 510,000 sqm of office space entered the district, outpacing the supply in Makati and Ortigas CBDs. In the coming years this trend is expected to continue as the district is projected to account for around 43% of the total upcoming office supply in Metro Manila.

The growth of residential developments in the district has outpaced that of the office sector. Early residential developments were mostly in the high-end and luxury segment such as the Pacific Plaza Towers, Essensa, and Regent Parkway, among others, while subsequent years were dominated by the mid-end segment. The years 2009 and 2010 were banner years for the Philippine residential market, when approximately 2,600 and 4,000 units respectively were supplied by the BGC district alone. In the next three years, the district is expected to add around 8,700 residential units to the total existing stock.

Approximately 180,000 sqm of shopping space is present in the district – a mix of a multi-level shopping mall and lifestyle centres. In the next three years an estimated 237,000 sqm of shopping space is expected to be added to the stock, serving as complementary developments to the nearby office and residential buildings.

The growing prominence of the BGC as a business hub eventually attracted hotel operators/developers to pursue hotel projects in the district. It was only in 2011, however, when the first hotel development (F1 Hotel managed by Best Western Premier) in the district opened but several prominent hotel developments are expected to follow suit, namely, Ascott, Shangri-La Hotel and Grand Hyatt. Altogether, these three hotels are expected to provide around 1,200 rooms by 2015.

One does not have to look far to see the significant changes that have occurred in the property landscape of the BGC district in only a relatively short span of time. Although I must admit that I miss the pockets of open spaces and the leisure drives that the former area offered, I am excited with the rapid pace of development in the district which is a good indication of the progress of, and the potential for, the BGC district in the years to come.

About the author
Janlo de los Reyes is the Senior Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Mitigating The Effects Of Peso Appreciation In The Philippine Real Estate Industry

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

The continued appreciation of the Philippine peso, which has been led in part by a surge of “hot money” from foreign investors seeking higher returns, has raised concerns about the stability of the country’s economic growth path and subsequently, the continued expansion of the real estate industry over the medium term.

The ill effects of infusing “hot money” into the economy can easily be remembered from the situation in 1997, which triggered the collapse of the stock market and consequently caused investors to be less confident about the economy. Subsequently, crucial economic sectors were negatively affected by the situation, especially the real estate industry. Recently, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas implied that due to the depressed global economic conditions, “hot money” was being pumped into the system by speculative foreign investors scouting for markets with higher returns.

The recent appreciation of the Philippine peso is anticipated to affect the local real estate industry. The strong local currency is likely to have an effect on the major sources of demand – the foremost of which are offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) companies and the remittances of overseas Filipinos (OFs). The continued appreciation of the currency may cause operating costs to rise, which could be an additional burden on O&O companies. OFs must continually send money home to support their families (education, sustenance and housing costs). Given this, the strong Philippine peso is likely to adversely affect OFs and their families.

However, by examining recent trends, the adverse effects of the continued appreciation of the local currency could be minimised or stopped over the long term. Upon looking at the basic reasons why O&O companies establish operations in the Philippines and how Filipino labourers are regarded overseas, it seems that the appreciation of the Philippine peso can only affect the industry to a certain extent. Aside from fixed operating expenses, the quality of an area’s labourers – namely, highly skilled, English-speaking workers that reduce training and retention costs – drive O&O operations to relocate. On the other hand, the remittances of OFs managed to grow strongly by 6.3% to USD 20.1 billion in 2012 and are expected to continue increasing over the medium-term due to the rising demand for skilled Filipino workers abroad. As the global economy recovers, it is highly probable that both the O&O sector (as companies intend to further outsource non-core services) and the remittances of OFs (as the demand for highly skilled labourers continues to increase) will continue to exhibit a trend of further growth.

The best way to fend off the adverse effects of the currency appreciation is to ensure that the basic competitive advantage of the country’s economy – the highly skilled Filipino labour force – is sustained and constantly developed. Strategy and significant monetary and fiscal policies should be coupled together to create a well-balanced market that can curb speculative growth, properly channel the inflow of investments into the economic system and ensure lasting economic development and real estate growth.

About the author
Claro Cordero Jr is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

A Brief Look Behind The Philippine Real Estate Market’s Growth In 2012

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

The past year has once again showed the resiliency of the Philippine real estate market amidst the uncertain global economic conditions. The robust performance of the Philippine economy, along with the positive performance of such key real estate demand drivers as the offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) industry and remittances from overseas Filipinos, continued to sustain the property sector’s growth momentum.

In 2012, the Philippine economy experienced various challenges and risks. Foremost among the threats was the fragile global economic environment caused by the sovereign debt crises in the Eurozone and the US debt and fiscal cliff problems. Moreover, the continued unrest in the Middle East, particularly Syria’s bloody civil war, threatened to affect remittances sent by overseas Filipinos (OFs) from these areas. Despite all these, the Philippine economy was strong in 2012 and many were pleasantly surprised when the 1Q12 GDP recorded growth of 6.4%. This momentum was maintained throughout the year, with 3Q12 GDP growth at 7.1%. In addition, the country’s credit rating was upgraded in 2012. Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s both raised the country’s rating to just one notch below investment grade. These upgrades are positive signs that an investment grade may be achievable before the current administration ends its term. The backdrop of a healthy domestic economy and encouraging investor environment buoyed the property market in 2012.

The O&O industry remained the primary driver of demand in the office market. The O&O industry continued to expand in 2012, bringing total office take-up in Metro Manila over the 400,000-sqm mark. Despite the large office supply completed during the year, average vacancy across business districts in the metro remained low at approximately 5%.

Meanwhile, OF remittances continued to grow in 2012, despite economic difficulties in such source countries as the US and Europe. For the first ten months of 2012, personal remittances grew 5.9% y-o-y to USD 19.5 billion. The sustained inflow of remittances supported the retail sector and demand for residential housing throughout the year. The growth of consumer spending buoyed by remittances attracted more international and local retailers to expand in the country. In the residential market, OF remittances continued to support the healthy sales rate of major projects.

The projected growth of the O&O industry and OF remittances, coupled with the country’s strong economic fundamentals and overall positive investor sentiment, is likely to carry the real estate market through 2013, despite the global headwinds. If the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) reaching the 6,000-level early this year is any indication, then the outlook for the local economy and the real estate market looks bright.

About the author
Jessica Mae Go is an Assistant Manager for Jones Lang LaSalle in Philippines, based in Manila.

Will There Be A “Scrooge Christmas” In The Philippine Real Estate Market?

Thursday, December 13th, 2012

The year-end holiday season usually signals an upbeat performance by the Philippine real estate market. Despite the strong economic performance of the Philippines since the beginning of 2012, there exist a number of market trends that may possibly threaten the festive mood of the holidays. Thus, it is worthwhile to examine these factors that may significantly alter the growth path of property demand and hint on a “Scrooge Christmas” scenario in the property sector.

Growing residential supply

The unprecedented volume of vertical developments and the pace of the construction of upcoming residential condominiums, particularly in the mid-end market, have raised concerns over whether a bubble could be potentially growing in the residential sector. However, the recent mandate by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on banks’ additional disclosure regarding their real estate exposure is expected to allay fears in the market. Furthermore, seasonal demand is projected to buoy the market as residential sales normally peak during the season on the back of increased spending. This is further encouraged by flexible Christmas promos by developers seeking to capitalise on the higher spending. Also, majority of lease transactions are closed within December as landlords and tenants prepare usually aim to finalise their housing requirements before the coming year.

Strong local currency

The Philippine peso has continued to gain strength over the US dollar, reflecting the country’s positive economic performance. While the strong local currency may seem positive, it also means that the value of remittances will be lower. The stronger peso may affect the budget and purchasing power of overseas Filipinos (OF) households which may slightly impact their demand for retail goods and residential housing during the holiday season. Nonetheless, the sustained growth of remittances is forecast to offset the effects of the stronger currency. This is supported by the improved financial services and channels that facilitate the efficient transfer of remittance inflows.

In the office market, the strong Philippine peso vis-à-vis the US dollar may lower the offshoring and outsourcing (O&O) industry’s competitiveness. The strong local currency may inflate the operational costs of local O&O firms. Even so, the Philippines is expected to remain competitive, overall, especially with other key competencies of the country such as the quality of English accent, scalable and large talent pool, and occupancy costs.

Moving forward

Overall, the Philippine property market is forecast to remain in a position of growth moving forward. The country’s strong economic fundamentals accompanied by the growth of property demand drivers, such as the O&O sector, OF remittances and the tourism industry, are projected to be sustained and offset the headwinds from the potential “Scrooges” in the Philippine real estate market this Christmas season.

About the author
Janlo de los Reyes is the Senior Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Averting The Property Bubble In The Philippines

Thursday, November 22nd, 2012

I am often asked if there is a property bubble developing in the Philippine property sector, specifically in the residential condominium segment. The anxiety brought on by this question is allayed by the recent activity that has been seen in other mature markets, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, where the government has played an active role in curbing the excessive escalation of property prices.

In the Philippines, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas recently ordered banks to provide additional details about their real-estate exposure, requiring them to provide details on: (1) the investments in debt and equity securities that fund property ventures and the loans given to property developers; and (2) the ancillary services relating to the construction and development of real estate projects such as the buying, selling, renting and managing of these real estate properties.

Some market players saw this move as a pre-emptive measure to curb any property bubble that might be developing as a result of the unprecedented amount of building seen in the country, especially in the high-rise condominium market. There are currently around 130,000 luxury-to-mid-end residential condominium units in Metro Manila, and over 1.2 times or some 150,000 units are expected to complete within the next five years.

In terms of asset performance, the bigger picture indicates a fairly moderate growth. The compound average annual growth rate of resale capital values between 2009 and 2012 has been 11%, in a sample of the existing luxury and high mid-end condominium developments in the Makati CBD and Bonifacio Global City. Additionally, the average sale prices of new developments have exhibited a similar trend during the same period.

The hard lessons learned during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis have prompted local regulators and developers to promulgate measures to prevent a property bubble from developing. Further, the regulators are motivated to prevent further disruptions in the market (which are likely to be brought by a property bubble) as the economy is set to receive upgraded credit and investment ratings from reputable rating agencies.

The challenge today is for both the regulators and the key market players to work together in analysing the sector by ensuring that the market information they provide is transparent and reliable. Hence, we believe that a more in-depth study of the various factors affecting the growth in the high end residential segment should be conducted to accurately determine the situation and aid the regulators in prescribing a more targeted preventive measure to avert any property bubble from developing.

About the author
Claro Cordero Jr. is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory for Jones Lang LaSalle in the Philippines.

Green Building Value In The Philippines – An Appraiser’s Perspective

Friday, October 26th, 2012

Sustainable development is one of the new trends in Philippine real estate, which aims to minimise the adverse environmental impact of continuous property development.

Nevertheless, is sustainability considered a key factor in property selection in the general Philippine market? Moreover, do green building technologies increase property value? From a valuer’s point of view, we can determine this using the three approaches to property value.

The Market Data Approach compares the transacted rents or sales prices of properties comparable to the subject green building. These prices are adjusted upwards or downwards, based on such considerations as size, location, transaction timing and amenities, among others. These are key considerations commonly regarded by prospective property tenants and/or buyers. Unfortunately, green building features are not necessarily among these factors, at least not within the current Philippine context.

Under the Cost Approach, we estimate the cost to construct a green building, net of estimated accumulated depreciation. Given that construction methods and materials for green buildings are not applied to conventional projects, there is a definite premium applied to their development cost. Project consultants peg this premium as high as 30% over conventional constructions. For depreciation rates: consultants estimate that environmentally sustainable buildings will last longer than traditional counterparts. However, since green building advocacy is still in its early stages here, there is a dearth of useful actual useful benchmarks to determine this rate.

In the Income Approach, operating income of the property is first determined. Based on what we have seen so far, the rents and associated lease terms for green buildings in the Philippines are well within the range of those non-green buildings of the same development grade (i.e. Grade A). Operating expenses which are then deducted are generally within the normal range charged by the non-green buildings. As mentioned earlier, green building generally involves higher development costs translating to higher initial capital expenditure (capex) for developers. Then again, green building technologies are generally more cost effective than conventional constructions, in the longer term the capex for non-green buildings could subsequently be higher as these developments age. Thus using this approach and in the absence of reliable local benchmarks, the net cash flows of green and non-green buildings could have minimal difference when you factor in the higher initial development costs associated with green buildings.

Although there is no palpable rental rate premium directly associated with green building features in the Philippine market, there are fundamental and intrinsic values to adopting green building technologies. Presently, green building developments provide a viable option for occupiers at immaterial price differentials given the substantial supply coming into the market. In the long run, benefits of these technologies are projected to be more cost effective to occupiers and developers alike due to efficient and lower management costs. Correspondingly, rental rate differentials directly associated with green building technologies can become increasingly more acceptable.

As sustainable real estate development in the Philippine market gains more ground and as the cost effectiveness of this approach becomes more apparent, we are optimistic that stakeholders will likewise elevate green building features among primary considerations for property selection; in turn making price premiums directly associated with green building technologies well-founded.


About the author

Sharon Saclolo is a Research Manager for Jones Lang LaSalle in Philippines, based in Manila.