Archive for the ‘Commercial Property’ Category

Are Savings Just Thin Air?

Thursday, April 25th, 2013

On a trip back to Scotland a couple of weeks ago, what jumped out at me was how much better the air quality was in comparison to Hong Kong.

This is far from a new topic, but realistically how do we address air quality in emerging Asia? In thinking of the interest groups and stakeholders involved this reminded me of the dilemma originally raised by ecologist Garrett Hardin. His theory tackled the socio-economic dilemma of a group of individuals when sharing a common resource. Known as “the tragedy of the commons,” this theory can be applied to a myriad of scenarios when society shares a common resource – in this case the wider environment.

In its simplest sense, the theory references the practice of medieval common grazing by herdsmen for their cattle. It goes something like this. Any single herder will have a personal motivation to add one more cow to his herd, because even if the results of adding additional cattle to his herd cause overgrazing and damage to the pastures, the herdsman receives all the economic benefit of adding those additional cattle, whilst the damage to the lands is shared by all.

Now, I’m not going to solve the air quality issues in Hong Kong in 500 words, but what is clear is that we all have a stake and responsibility in tackling these issues and this applies as much to real estate professionals just like myself. With a significant proportion of energy consumption being taken up by real estate, globally we have a duty and a responsibility to drive forward change to improve the impact we have on our “pastures.”

Now what Hardin did not address in his paper was technology. Technology provides solutions to problems. Yes we can legislate, but the winning argument in relation to real estate in this debate in my mind is simply the bottom line. When businesses start to see the savings and benefits to their bottom line of adopting more sustainable new technologies in real estate, adopting new best practice will just become the natural course. Technology is already moving fast and the real estate industry has some brilliant technologies at hand already.

The savings from sustainability are very real, not just on the impact we have on our “pastures” but on the bottom line. A great example is our new LEED Platinum office in Hong Kong. Our new office consumes 13% less energy per sq ft and better air quality has greatly improved the environment, indeed we’ve seen a 32% reduction in absenteeism.

I’m not saying technology has all the solutions now and that the payback times and the investment are not prohibitive at times. However, what is true is that the more it’s adopted, the more the costs will come down making it a more viable option.

A project we undertook in New York on the Empire State Building is a great example of how savings can be made even today. Not only did we deliver a project to improve sustainability which would pay for itself in three years by saving US$4.4m per annum in energy savings, the energy reduction and thus the impact on the planet, was in the region of 38%.

So the lesson is this, not only is the technology here to save us from a similar “tragedy of the commons,” but it’s improving every day. The savings to the bottom line are real and it’s up to us as real estate professionals to promote best practice in our industry. We can’t solve transport and factory pollution; however, with a little effort from all stakeholders, there will be some very tangible benefits for the wider environment and also the bottom line of developers, tenants and landlords – our clients.

About the author
Roddy Allan is a Director, Asia Pacific Research for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Hong Kong.

India Office Real Estate: A Tale Of The Suburbs

Monday, March 25th, 2013

India is rapidly urbanising and the skylines of the country’s metropolises are changing quickly with the building of skyscrapers and modern architecture. The smaller towns too are being transformed in unprecedented ways through the expansion of transportation networks, the creation of central districts and parks and by numerous residential projects. Many cities have been transformed and Ahmedabad is most illustrative of them. Even before the metro rail link between Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar has sprouted tracks, Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City) phase I (10 million sq ft) has already rolled out its construction plans. However, all these big changes have not been caused by irrational enthusiasm – they are indeed necessary, given the influx of people to the towns and the needful creation of employment. As existing CBDs have become saturated, India’s commercial markets have grown in terms of both the density of existing business districts and the emergence of new ones.

During the past decade, India’s commercial property segment has been witnessing a steady rise in demand for office space and the impact of the GFC is now waning. All this activity is credited to the significant shift within the country from developing average-quality commercial space to building superior-quality projects with advanced amenities that support the business environment. Also, the on-going infrastructure initiatives are aimed at transforming the suburban areas into successful commercial centres.

The recently conducted Jones Lang LaSalle India CFO survey revealed that approximately 68% of the companies surveyed are planning to expand their operations in the next five years. These companies may prefer to shift to suburban locations because by doing so they will be able to reduce their real estate costs and move into superior quality projects, which are available at lower rents and offer modern amenities, car parking and safety. The banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector dominates the CBD market due to its willingness to pay higher rents, whereas IT/ITES occupiers dominate the suburban market in terms of occupancy due to the availability of larger office space areas and because the nature of their business makes them vulnerable to higher real estate overhead costs.

Suburban locations are home to the majority of office occupiers and will have a growing role in determining the performance of the country’s office market. The absorption of office space in the country totalled 26.7 million sq ft in 2012 with suburban locations accounting for more than 60% of the total, or 16.6 million sq ft. This is forecast to increase further to 68%, or 19.2 million sq ft in 2013. These growing real estate activities in suburban locations of India provide evidence of a shift in gravity towards this market.

About the author
Karan Khetan is the Senior Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle in India, based in Mumbai.

Are Australian Yields Sustainable?

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

Australia has been the destination for 45 cents in every dollar of direct real estate investment that flowed into the Asia Pacific region from elsewhere (2011 and 2012). One of the key attractions of Australia is the high yields delivered by prime grade assets compared to equivalent assets in other mature markets with similar levels of transparency. The yield spread between Australian office markets and other mature markets is demonstrated in the table below. The spread between Australian retail yields and the rest of the world is similarly wide. Two questions arise – why are yields so high, and are they sustainable?

High yields may reflect a risk premium applied to Australian property. Currency risk could be part of the story. The Australian dollar has been very strong, particularly against the USD, the Euro and Sterling. With 29% of total investment volumes in 2012 coming from offshore, foreign investors have been influential in setting prices in the Australian market. Australia’s high interest rate structure may be a contributory reason for the yield spread between Australia and other comparable markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy interest rate is 3%, when policy rates in the US, UK/Europe and Japan are close to zero. Further, investors in the relatively small Australian market may require a premium for liquidity, particularly when financial markets are fragile.

Nevertheless, basic economics suggests that cross-border capital flows should lead to a convergence of asset values. As investment flows into the Australian market rise there is a growing debate as to whether the persisting yield spreads are founded on economic fundamentals such as risk and liquidity, or whether there is an aberration in asset pricing.

The next 12 months should go some way in answering this question. In an efficient market asset values should equalise. So, if yield spreads stay where they are through 2013 we should look for fundamental reasons for Australia’s high yields and their lack of compression. However, if yield spreads do narrow it suggests that currently inertia on the part of investors is resulting in temporary mispricing.

There are advocates on both sides of the debate at present.

Behind this debate are two conflicting theories of how markets work. Behavioural theory suggests that cognitive biases and emotions can influence investment decisions. This can be amplified when access to information is limited, as it often is in property markets where local knowledge and expertise are important. If it is indeed the case that investor irrationality is keeping yields inflated, it can be expected that the market will re-calibrate and the yield spread to international markets will narrow.

In contrast, the efficient markets theory argues that prices always reflect all publicly available information. Australia’s high yields therefore arise from fundamental factors, and the spread to other markets is likely to persist.

The next twelve months will be an interesting test of these theories. Pragmatically, Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts moderate tightening at the upper end of the prime yield range in 2013. It is expected that demand for ‘trophy assets’ from foreign investors will finally give way to some yield compression. But we do not see a major narrowing of the yield gap during 2013.

About the author
Alex McColl is a Market Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Sydney, Australia.

Brisbane’s Office Market Cannot Be Called Illiquid

Tuesday, January 22nd, 2013

Australia is firmly entrenched near the top of international investors’ shopping list for commercial property due to a relatively stable macroeconomic environment, an exposure to Asia’s rapid growth and high relative returns. As such, more investors have recently been looking beyond Sydney and Melbourne for investment options.

Brisbane as the next biggest Australian market, and within a rapidly growing resource-driven region, has attracted a lot of international capital of late. Over the past three years, international buyers have invested around AUD 1.32 billion in Brisbane office property, which is around one third of all property transacted in the market over the period. This investment has been across 17 different assets, 10 in the Brisbane CBD and seven in Brisbane’s near-city office market. It has also included some prominent investors, such as the US-based Hines Group, that has made their initial Australian purchase in Brisbane.

The traditional route for international investors into Australia has been to gain a strong foothold in Sydney and Melbourne before even considering other markets. Aside from being the largest two markets, foreigners are most familiar with these two cities and generally know little about other Australian cities. While perceptions towards Brisbane are rapidly changing due to strong recent economic growth, the pre-conception many overseas investors have had has been that the market is too small and, as a result, illiquid and difficult to exit when capital availability tightens up.

However, analysis suggests this assertion that the Brisbane market is illiquid is not supported by recent experience. Since the start of 2008, Brisbane has seen 64 major office market assets sell for in excess of AUD 4.2 billion. These assets total around 816,000 sqm of office NLA total or 38% of Brisbane’s current total office stock. By comparison, Sydney has seen 81 transactions over the period totaling 30% of its current stock and Melbourne has seen 79 transactions representing 28% of current office stock.

By value, Brisbane has seen total transaction values average 7% of our estimated CBD office capital stock over the past three years. Again, this is higher than either Sydney or Melbourne over the same period. Even at the GFC-induced trough in transaction volumes in 2009, Brisbane saw AUD 478.8 million of CBD sales or 3.7% of the estimated capital stock at the time.

Offshore investors’ increased interest in Brisbane assets is itself part of the explanation for the relative liquidity of the market. Investors have bought into the strong long-term demand story for the market, underpinned by a strong resource-driven economy and rapid population growth. However, the robust construction cycle over recent years also explains this interest. Brisbane CBD office stock has grown 19% over the past five years, more than any other major Australian CBD market, while the Brisbane near-city market has grown by an impressive 38% over the same period. This strong development cycle has created new quality assets with high sustainability credentials that have fitted well with the investment mandates of many major international investors looking for core assets.

About the author
Leigh Warner is a Director of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Brisbane, Australia.

A Good Start To The Year

Monday, January 7th, 2013

Asia fared better than other regions last year, but it too has not been immune to what’s been happening in the world’s economies over the last 12 months. This is evident given the new economic data from Singapore which shows that Singapore narrowly missed slipping into a recession in the fourth quarter with economic growth of only 1.8% (Q-o-Q annualised) in the fourth quarter.

So, now with 2012 in the past, what will 2013 have in store?

Well, certainly if the start to the New Year is anything to go by, things globally are looking a little rosier. Before I’d even set foot back into the office, the US fiscal cliff deal had bolstered equities markets around the globe; the FTSE was over the 6,000 mark for the first time in 18 months, and the Hang Seng up over 3%. Indeed as at the 4th of January, these bourses are up considerably on a y-o-y basis, nearly 12% and 30% respectively.

Being in the research business I understand just how important quality information is. Our clients buy the Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) for a reason, sometimes they need concrete historical data and forecasts, sometimes they need access to observations and people on the ground.

On this basis, and given I’ve just completed my busiest time of the year out and about meeting up with clients and potential clients to discuss their plans for the year ahead, I thought I’d bring you some of my take-aways. Hopefully some of these high level observations may provide a little insight as to what may be in-store for us in Asia Pacific’s real estate markets in 2013.

By observation, there seems to be an air of confidence regarding Asia Pacific going into 2013. The region in general is very much on investors’ radars, possibly even more so than before. Interestingly, South East Asia which had not been in the sights of some clients, seems to be back on the agenda. China is still very much in favour and I continue to see increased interested in our REIS services for this market – something which I think bodes well given that this is a potential leading indicator for where clients may deploy capital.

Clients new and old alike, seem to be focusing their sights and refining their strategies – especially on the debt and investment front. For some investors 2011/2012 was a period of restructure, however with these restructures mainly worked through and now with tighter leaner teams at the fore, these investors are now in better shape to move forwards in 2013.

Indeed, if the latest RMB billion land transaction in Beijing is anything to go by, the highest premium paid at auction in two years, then the sun is still shining!

A Happy New Year, may it be good to all of us!

To access a taster of some of the key real estate indicators available through REIS, download our NEW mobile site to your handset at www.joneslanglasalle.com/datatouch.

About the author
Roddy Allan is a Director, Asia Pacific Research for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Hong Kong.

The Australian Government: Why Buy Our Debt When You Can Buy Our Covenant?

Tuesday, November 27th, 2012

Foreign investors are acquiring Australian government bonds in record numbers. Nearly 80 per cent of the Commonwealth’s AUD 207 billion debt on issue is now held offshore. Yet offshore investment into the largely Federal Government-occupied Canberra office market remains comparatively subdued. Two large sales to Singaporean investors at the start of the year (totalling AUD 309 million) are the only significant transactions since 2010 that Canberra has to show for the influx of foreign funds into Australia.

While the ten-year government bond yield is currently 3.30% (as of 26/11/2012), the midpoint of the prime-grade yield in the Canberra office market is 508 basis points higher, between 7.25% and 9.50%. Commercial property, unlike government bonds, offers an income return and the prospect of long-term capital appreciation. The tighter end of the yield range (7.25%) represents modern, energy efficient office buildings – often with long-term leases to government occupiers with fixed increases over the duration of the lease. These yields are significantly higher than other Australian CBD office markets – approximately 100 basis points higher than Sydney and 75 basis points higher than Melbourne. Obsolescence and depreciation are obvious risks, but are the fundamentals of the prime market in Canberra that much worse than in Sydney or Melbourne?

Currently, Canberra’s vacancy rate is the highest of any Australian CBD, at 10.5%. It is important, however, to peel back the headlines of the Canberra vacancy rate. Since 2010, a National Green Lease policy requires that all new government leases should meet a hurdle of a 4.5 star NABERS energy rating when the office space is more than 2,000 sqm and the lease term is more than two years. Currently only six options over 2,000 sqm meet these requirements in the key precincts of Civic and Barton. So unless there are major changes to the drivers of office demand in Canberra, an energy efficient property in a good location is unlikely to become obsolescent, nor is it likely to significantly depreciate in value.

Approximately 60% of Canberra office space is occupied by Federal or State Government. The health of the Canberra office market is, therefore, intrinsically linked to the public sector. Since large scale employment cuts during the first term of the first Coalition government (1996 – 1998), public service job growth has been roughly in line with population growth. So despite promises from both sides of politics to cut public sector spending if elected, the number of public servants in Canberra is unlikely to dramatically decline.

The global hunt for yield makes Australian assets attractive to offshore investors. Australia is one of only fourteen countries rated as AAA by Standard & Poor’s. The quality of covenant (and therefore security of cash flow) from a high proportion of Canberra’s prime-grade assets is amongst the strongest in the world.

Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts that prime-grade assets in Canberra will deliver an average total return of 9.9% per annum between 2012 and 2021. With ten-year government bond yields sitting at 3.30%, an investment in the Canberra office market has the potential to generate an excess annual return of 660 basis points for little additional risk.

About the author
Alex McColl is a Market Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Sydney, Australia

Tax Implications For Commercial Title Apartments

Friday, November 2nd, 2012

Since home purchase restrictions (HPRs) were introduced in early 2011 across a number of cities in China, many investors have been channeling their cash into commercial properties which are not restricted by HPRs. In addition to strata title office space, commercial title apartments (which many developers market as serviced apartments) have been an alternative solution for developers to market property to investors. However, the demand for commercial title apartments has been relatively weak compared to residential apartments despite the fact that they offer the same functions from an end users’ perspective. This can be mainly attributed to the fact that tax liabilities between commercial title apartments and residential apartments are quite different. The table below is a simplified illustration of the tax difference.

In addition to the tax difference, required down payments are different as well. For commercial title apartments, the minimum down payment is 50%, compared to 30% for residential apartments. As illustrated in the table below, the much higher transaction taxes and down payment requirements for commercial title apartments erode investors’ returns substantially, which results in less investment enthusiasm from investors for commercial title apartments compared to residential apartments.

In most of the cities we track, we find more developers are considering offering commercial title apartments as a part of their office developments, which would lead to an oversupply of such properties in the coming years. In addition, most of these cities will continue to see large new supply of residential apartments over the following years, meaning that developers will face even greater obstacles to sell commercial titled units. In contrast, although the office market in many tier II and III cities across China is facing a short-to-medium term oversupply situation, many cities still lack quality office stock and the long-term prospect of the office market still looks positive as the service sector grows in size.

About the author
Joe Zhou is the Head of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle in Shanghai.

The Tide Has Turned (Rapidly) For The Brisbane Office Market

Monday, October 15th, 2012

Until recently, the outlook for the Brisbane office market appeared strong. However, things have changed rapidly over recent months and the demand environment now appears challenging for at least the next 12 months. This dramatic turnaround reflects three key factors: a much quicker and more significant reduction than expected in the impetus to tenant demand from the resources sector; continued fragile business sentiment across other sectors; and the impact of State Government downsizing.

The impetus to white collar employment from resources projects was always expected to slow over the next few years as the large number of committed projects moves into construction and the flow of new projects slows. Previously, this was expected to occur gradually over the next few years and the stimulus that the construction projects would give the broader Queensland economy would boost business confidence in other sectors and offset some of the declining impetus to net absorption from the resources sector.

The reality has been that sharper-than-expected declines in commodity prices, blowouts in project costs and shareholder pressure on resources companies to pay dividends rather than invest have all led to the postponement of uncommitted future projects sooner than expected and to the re-assessment of some existing operations (particularly coking coal). With some resource and engineering firms already offering sub-lease spaces to the market, the resources sector impetus has gone into reverse.

While the cooling resources sector should theoretically reduce some cost pressures in the economy and put downward pressure on the Australian dollar, this has not occurred yet and general business sentiment has deteriorated recently rather than improve. Consequently, other sectors are not likely to pick up much of the slack from the resources sector over the next 12 months.

The Queensland public sector grew enormously over the past decade and has been a significant driver of tenant demand over that period. A new conservative State Government elected in early 2012 has recently instigated public sector job cuts totaling around 14,000 across the state in order to address high budget deficits and state debt. The State Government occupies around 400,000 sqm of space in the Brisbane CBD and the job cuts have prompted a decision to roll staff out of commercially leased space and consolidate accommodation within government-owned buildings. The State has recently reportedly identified at least 40,000 sqm of commercially leased space that it will look to sub-lease or relinquish on lease expiry over the next few years. This space is almost entirely secondary stock and as a result we expect a two-tiered market to rapidly emerge between the prime and secondary space markets.

The silver lining for the market is that there is virtually no uncommitted new supply due to hit the market until at least late-2015 and this should help the market bounce back as demand recovers from 2014 onwards. Indeed, there is now a risk that the slow near-term demand outlook further delays the next wave of construction, which could work well for existing assets around the 2015 period and see a normalisation in incentive levels drive strong effective rental growth.

About the author
Leigh Warner is a Director of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Brisbane, Australia.

Wuhan: The Star Of Central China

Monday, September 3rd, 2012

Wuhan is receiving a growing amount of attention as a city that is in the process of “lift off”. In the China 50 report earlier this year, Wuhan was given the well-deserved classification of a Tier 1.5 city, due to its sheer magnitude. While Chengdu is now regarded as the regional centre of West China, Wuhan is growing into the same role in Central China. The city sits at the crossroads of some of China’s most important transportation arteries. Unique among Chinese cities, Wuhan is composed of three once independent towns called Hankou, Wuchang, and Hanyang, which were united to form the Wuhan metropolis in 1927. The current leadership is presiding over an infrastructure boom that is massive even by Chinese standards and will interlace the city with subways and new roads and expressways.

Among the two largest companies in Wuhan, one produces steel, and the other produces cars. Wuhan’s heavy industry background continues to be its strength. The city’s state-owned giants have partnered with foreign carmakers such as Citroen and Nissan. Wuhan competes with several other cities for the status of the “Detroit of China”, but Wuhan is about more than cars. Wuhan also has aspirations in the technology and service sectors, which are bolstered by one of the largest concentrations of universities and students in China. The city’s 82 institutions of higher learning are second only to Beijing, and help make Wuhan’s workforce one of China’s best-educated yet low cost.

By the end of 2011, 83 Fortune 500 companies had established a presence in Wuhan, and over 5,000 multinational corporations have invested in Wuhan a total contracted value of more than USD 23 billion. Such enterprises supply 20% of the tax revenue of the city. Over the past two years, Wuhan’s development into the economic heart of Central China has combined with rapid growth in the city’s tertiary sector to attract more firms seeking to establish Central China headquarters. In the last twelve months, Grade A office rents in the city increased 30% — the fastest increase anywhere in China other than Beijing.

During our recent semi-annual fieldwork in the city, we found that new projects seem to sprout up by the dozen over a vast urban area. Wuhan has roughly double the number of retail projects of a Tier II city such as Changsha in order to serve the rapidly growing consumer class. One notable feature of the city is the prevalence of open-air shopping centres, which claim a third of the total retail stock. Known as one of China’s “Four Furnaces” in summer and for its cold, wet winters, Wuhan at first glance does not appear favourable to outdoor shopping. Regardless of the format, Wuhan is a retail market that is far from saturation.

Wuhan will be profiled in extensive detail in our upcoming 2012 edition of the Wuhan city profile, slated for release later this year.

Also, in response to growing demand for basic information from a retail perspective, we are going to launch a booklet of 20 one-page city profiles under the banner Retail Intelligence.

About the author
Steven McCord is a Local Director in Jones Lang LaSalle’s research team in China, based in Shanghai.

The G20 A Game Changer For Brisbane?

Tuesday, July 24th, 2012

Brisbane has been selected as the venue for the G20 summit to be held in November 2014. The announcement created controversy in Australia, with some feathers ruffled that Sydney and Melbourne were overlooked. The decision underlines a steady re-weighting of economic clout and population that is driving the resource-based states of Queensland and Western Australia into positions of greater profile globally.

The G20 summit will not be Brisbane’s first event of global significance. World Expo ’88 is credited with cementing Brisbane’s transition from a big country town into a major capital city that could align itself with Sydney and Melbourne. This event left Brisbane with Southbank; a world class park, recreation, dining, cultural and convention precinct. Southbank will again be centre stage at the G20 Summit in 2014 and hopefully will again leave a lasting impression on the 4,000 delegates and 3,000 media from 27 countries who will be visiting the city in 2014.

Offshore real estate investors moving funds into Australia show a strong preference for Sydney and Melbourne. Domestic institutional investors are also typically overweight these two markets. But these portfolio decisions are getting harder to justify. Historically the best Brisbane CBD assets have traded at around a 75 bp yield discount to Sydney and Melbourne – the question for investors is whether this spread will narrow going forward as Brisbane’s profile rises ?

The Brisbane CBD office market accounts for 13% of total Australian CBD office market stock by area, and around 14% by value. The city of Brisbane has had its ups and downs in recent years. Between June 2008 and December 2009, office prime gross effective rents declined 46% under the impact of the Global Financial Crisis and vacancy rose from 1.4% to 10.2%. In January 2011 the Brisbane CBD was closed for five days due to major flooding. However, Brisbane’s recovery from these adversities has been swift. In the office market, capital values have been rising since December 2010 and the vacancy rate, currently 8.8%, is forecast to decline to 5.6% in 2014. In June, Brisbane’s latest premium grade office tower, the 64,000 sqm 111 Eagle Street, reached practical completion around 85% leased. The newly elected State government of Queensland is currently reviewing plans for a series of major developments in the CBD over the next three years.

The G20 decision is a reminder to Sydney and Melbourne that the long term trends are running Queensland’s way. Over the last 25 years, Queensland’s share of Australia’s GDP has risen from 14.8% to 19.4%. Strong economic growth has brought with it strong population growth. Queensland economic growth has averaged 4.5% per annum over this period, compared to 2.8% growth in New South Wales and 3.2% in Victoria. Queensland’s share of the national population has also risen to over 20%.

Perhaps Queenslanders will be able to look back and say the G20 summit established Brisbane’s international profile just as World Expo ’88 assured Brisbane an equal place on the national stage?

About the author
Leigh Warner is a Director of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Brisbane, Australia.