Archive for the ‘Capital Markets’ Category

Shanghai Moves Up The Global Investment Ranks

Friday, May 17th, 2013

Our Global Capital Flows research from the first quarter of 2013 suggests that Shanghai is well on its way to becoming a top destination for commercial real estate investment. In 1Q13, the city grew to become the sixth most active real estate investment market in the world, with a total of US$ 2.4 billion in transactions while in the same period last year, Shanghai ranked 19th globally. If we break down transaction volumes further to just cross-border investment, excluding domestic deals, Shanghai’s performance in Q1 was even more impressive, ranking fifth in the world and surpassing regional rivals Hong Kong and Singapore in total deal volume. Shanghai’s strength was underpinned by strong investment demand across Mainland China, which passed Australia and Hong Kong to become the sixth largest investment market in the world in the first quarter.

Most Active Cities for Investment in Q1 2013

At first glance, the flood of international capital into Shanghai seems to come at a strange time. Pessimism about China’s economy became more widespread in recent months after disappointing economic performance in the first quarter. A slowdown in expansion by international businesses has caused rental growth in Shanghai’s office and retail markets to slow, and rising residential prices, disappointing consumption levels and weakening retail sales growth all provided fodder for China bears.

It therefore may seem counterintuitive that some of the largest and most respected global investors are increasingly favouring Shanghai as a destination for capital. Several of the leading global private equity firms have recently made large purchases in Shanghai. Both Blackstone and Carlyle, for example, purchased office properties in the Shanghai CBD in the past two quarters. So why are these players so optimistic about the medium-to-long term prospects for Shanghai?

My hunch is that most of these investors have looked beyond the short term negativity caused by a slowdown in the pace of China’s growth and are concentrating on the big picture. Right now, they have the opportunity to purchase property in the financial and economic centre of what is by far the fastest growing large economy in the world. Even if China’s economy slows from 8% growth to 7% growth in the next few years, 7% growth still beats prospects in Europe and North America by a wide margin. On top of that, prime office yields are higher in Shanghai than in New York, London, Tokyo, Paris, and Hong Kong, meaning investors in office assets, Shanghai’s most popular sector, can lock in strong returns while also capitalising on future growth prospects. Despite negative headlines about the state of China’s economy, the upside potential here will continue to drive increasing investment in real estate assets.

About the author
Daniel Odette is a Senior Analyst in Jones Lang LaSalle’s research team in China, based in Shanghai.

Investment Activity Up In The First Quarter

Tuesday, April 16th, 2013

Regional Summary

Investment activity commenced the year firmly across Asia Pacific, with USD 27.4 billion of transactions in the first quarter. Volumes were up 29% on the same quarter last year and up 3% from the strong final quarter of 2012. For the most part, capital from institutional investors continues to chase core trophy assets; however we are seeing evidence of some groups starting to look up the risk curve. Opportunities into core-plus and value-add assets are starting to present a strong case for superior risk-adjusted returns given the aggressive pricing in core assets. Capital continues to flow into the real estate sector in the Asia Pacific region from multi-asset investors as well as pension and sovereign wealth funds, as asset allocation strategies continue to favour income producing assets. We continue to see a shift towards equity partnering, JVs and club deals as investors seek greater control of their assets.

The financing environment remains mixed across the region with investors continuing to seek out new sources of capital to diversify their debt portfolios. Asian bond markets continue to increase their global share as liquidity constraints (in some markets) and new regulation on bank lending help to accelerate the development of the bond market. The exodus of European lenders who continue to repatriate capital and reduce their balance sheet in the region is being somewhat offset by the larger role being played by regional and domestic banks. Lending margins remain high but continue to show a downward trend in most markets. All in funding costs remain attractive to real estate investment given the extremely low interbank lending rates across the more developed markets in the region.

Market Trends in 1Q13

Confidence in Japan has improved in early 2013 associated with planned stimulus measures to reflate the economy proposed by new PM Shinzo Abe. A weaker yen will also support the export and labour markets and have a positive flow on effect for commercial real estate markets. Domestic groups in Australia including A-REITs are back on the acquisition trail as unit prices have moved back in line with Net Asset Values (NAV). The cost of debt has continued to edge lower over the past 12 months and levered acquisitions are yield accretive to existing portfolios. The lull in investment activity seen in China in the second half of 2012 is showing signs of reversing after relatively firm performance in 1Q13 (up 2% on 1Q12 and 68% on 4Q12).

Most other core markets in the region performed fairly well during the quarter with Hong Kong recording investment volume growth despite cooling measures imposed through higher stamp duty and more restrictive mortgage lending practices. It was however a quarter of two halves with much of the activity occurring prior to the cooling measures. Singapore also recorded strong levels of investment activity, primarily due to a few very large deals concluding during the quarter. On the whole, we remain positive in our outlook for the region and we maintain expectation for full year 2013 investment volumes of USD 110 billion.

About the author
Nicholas Wilson is a Senior Analyst for the Asia Pacific Capital Markets team in Singapore.

Q1 Volumes Point To Further Global Transactional Growth In 2013

Wednesday, April 10th, 2013

After such a busy end to 2012, when volumes surpassed US$150 billion for Q4, a drop off in volumes in the first quarter was to be expected. However, the US$94 billion that we have recorded in our preliminary numbers is a healthy 8% higher than the first quarter of 2012 and points to further growth in transactional volumes in 2013, over and above the US$447 we recorded for the full year 2012.

While all three regions saw similar levels of transactional increases, between 7-8%, on this time last year it’s the mentality of investors at the regional and global level that is more interesting as we move into the second quarter of 2013. Confidence can be a fragile commodity, especially when there are so many moving parts as there are in the real estate investment community. Economics, currency movements, corporate profitability, tenant demand – all play a part in the decision making of investors both domestically and cross-border.

A year ago the threat of war on the Korean peninsula and a tax on savers within one of the Eurozone countries would have brought markets to their knees and investors scurrying for the safety of gold and US treasuries. Despite the amount of media coverage, the Cyprus banking crisis has been resolved, although the long term ramifications for this small economy look to be serious. And what we have discovered about North Korea is that they have a small but growing tech hub which is pretty good at doctoring photographs. What these two situations have emphasised is that while the global economy has many challenges to overcome, some of which will take a considerable amount of time to resolve, there is a sense of buoyancy in the direction being taken by political and business leaders and a confidence that the new people in post know what they are doing and are taking the right, if sometimes difficult decisions.

What this means for real estate is that investors are starting to look slightly higher up the risk curve and that is borne out by the increased transactional volumes compared to a year ago. Although there is still huge demand for well let buildings in core locations, demand is also increasing for slightly off pitch properties with maybe a higher than average level of vacancy where good asset management can turn the asset around. Also, as we have seen from the US over the last few quarter’s secondary cities are seeing a growing share of investment activity.

For transactional volumes to surpass the US$500 billion level for 2013 we will need to see increasing levels of secondary market activity as core markets alone will not be able to sustain the year on year growth we have seen since 2009.

About the author
David Green-Morgan is Global Capital Markets Research Director, based in Singapore.

Will We See Yield Compression In The Aussie Super-prime Cohort?

Friday, March 15th, 2013

Prime-grade assets in gateway cities are, increasingly, being viewed as substitute products. Australia’s gateway city is Sydney, but international investors would also include Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth as plausible investment destinations.

The specific investment criteria of passive offshore capital, unlisted funds (including superannuation funds) and some A-REITs are generating competition for a specific type of product. The characteristics of the product include: Premium or A Grade (in excess of 20,000 sqm to 25,000 sqm and less than five years old), strong covenants, long weighted average lease expiry (with fixed increases) and, increasingly, the highest sustainability credentials.

We have termed this product the “Aussie super-prime”. While Jones Lang LaSalle monitors more than 4,000 assets across 19 office markets in Australia, at a market value of $151.5 billion, the super-prime cohort is limited to between 50 and 55 assets.

Development is the main source of product creation in the super-prime cohort. Australia, like other mature economies, has experienced a cyclical slowdown in development activity since the financial crisis. Jones Lang LaSalle has identified 13 qualifying developments that would meet the definition of super-prime across office markets. Very few of these assets, however, will present an investment opportunity for offshore or well-capitalised domestic investors. The assets are being developed by a property company or superannuation fund that intends to be a long-term holder of the finished product or have been acquired under a fund-through agreement.

The vacancy rate across Australian CBD office markets is 8.8%. Historically, equilibrium vacancy was assumed to be between 7% and 9%. There is, however, a symbiotic relationship emerging between tenant, developer and investor. Large corporate occupiers are looking for the next generation of office accommodation, incorporating the latest sustainability credentials, to make efficiency gains and improve productivity across their business. However, a high proportion of Australia’s stock reflects the design and characteristics of the 1980s or earlier. Across the CBD office markets of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, 42% of stock is in excess of 30 years old. Developers seek to secure pre-commitments to under-write future earnings, while investor demand is strong for product with long dated leases that are offered through development stock.

The inter-play of these factors is supporting asset creation in Australia and accelerates the obsolescence of older assets, creating structural vacancy within this sector of the market. As a result, the equilibrium rate in Australian office markets is likely to be higher, at between 8% and 10% over the next decade.

Property yields have remained relatively sticky following the decompression throughout the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, Jones Lang LaSalle is not a subscriber to the argument that property yields will precipitously follow Treasury yields down to the extent recorded in a number of offshore markets.

However, the increased depth of investor demand for Aussie super-prime assets and the relative scarcity of these assets will generate pricing tension and yield compression. This year will be the year that yields on the super-prime cohort of assets will start to lose their adhesiveness.

About the author
Andrew Ballantyne is a Director for Jones Lang LaSalle in Australia, based in Sydney.

Dodging A Bullet – How Meteorites Affect Real Estate

Friday, March 1st, 2013

A few weeks ago a 50-metre wide meteorite named 2012 DA 14 passed a mere 17,000 miles from Earth. We can be grateful that this wandering space traveler came to pass, and didn’t come to stay. But a few days later the much smaller Cherbakul Meteorite did collide with the Ural Mountains, injuring an estimated 1,200 people.

The Earth, astronomers observe, is in a bad neighbourhood from the meteorite perspective. But at least we can expect some advance notice of a major collision. It’s instructive to contemplate the impact on real estate of, say, a two-week warning that civilisation was about to be obliterated.

A buyers’ market would emerge. Values and leasing activity would fall. Spending on some discretionary items – hotels, casinos, for example – would rise sharply, as would overtime rates for waiters and croupiers. Other discretionary retail outlets – furniture stores, health clubs, for example, would stand empty. Some service providers such as dentists would suffer mass cancellations. Online retailers might experience a short-lived boom. And, with a spike in credit card use, interest rates would rise: but who would care?

So, why is this relevant? Because right now official interest rates in many economies are at, or close to, zero. Bond yields are near multi-decade lows. It’s the meteorite thought experiment in reverse. Low interest rates have many, and sometimes unexpected, impacts on real estate.

Low interest rates imply low investment hurdle rates and long pay-back periods. It is precisely these trends that monetary authorities hope will tempt companies and households back into investment and spending mode.

Sustainability is a front-line topic right now, and low interest rates favour the environmental argument. Low interest rates encourage construction, which is energy intensive. But, by extending payback periods, the type of construction is also altered. Longer payback periods support investment in structures with longer life cycles. One reason why the 1970s is now widely regarded as a decade of poor design is because it was also a decade of high interest rates.

But not all construction is encouraged. Option prices also fall along with interest rates. So owners of vacant land are in no hurry to get into development mode – the opportunity cost of waiting is low. But many existing buildings, designed for a higher interest rate economy, will now seem under-specified. So look for a cycle of refurbishment and upgrading of existing assets.

Low interest rates also have locational impacts if they are regarded as permanent. Mining companies adjust, where they can, to exploiting lower grades of ore or reducing the rate of extraction, therefore extending mine lives. Exploration is encouraged. So investment in infrastructure, houses and shops in mining communities becomes more viable.

Low interest rates encourage investment in human as well as physical capital. More years of study increases demand for student accommodation. But it takes longer for workers to build up retirement savings. So people enter the work force later, and leave it later. Demand for retirement accommodation may be postponed.

The impact of today’s low interest rates is complex, diverse and likely to be with us for a long time. But be warned: at any time 2013 DA 15 could emerge from the cosmos and throw all these trends into reverse.

About the author
David Rees is the Head of Research for Jones Lang LaSalle in Australasia, based in Australia.

Are Australian Yields Sustainable?

Friday, February 22nd, 2013

Australia has been the destination for 45 cents in every dollar of direct real estate investment that flowed into the Asia Pacific region from elsewhere (2011 and 2012). One of the key attractions of Australia is the high yields delivered by prime grade assets compared to equivalent assets in other mature markets with similar levels of transparency. The yield spread between Australian office markets and other mature markets is demonstrated in the table below. The spread between Australian retail yields and the rest of the world is similarly wide. Two questions arise – why are yields so high, and are they sustainable?

High yields may reflect a risk premium applied to Australian property. Currency risk could be part of the story. The Australian dollar has been very strong, particularly against the USD, the Euro and Sterling. With 29% of total investment volumes in 2012 coming from offshore, foreign investors have been influential in setting prices in the Australian market. Australia’s high interest rate structure may be a contributory reason for the yield spread between Australia and other comparable markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy interest rate is 3%, when policy rates in the US, UK/Europe and Japan are close to zero. Further, investors in the relatively small Australian market may require a premium for liquidity, particularly when financial markets are fragile.

Nevertheless, basic economics suggests that cross-border capital flows should lead to a convergence of asset values. As investment flows into the Australian market rise there is a growing debate as to whether the persisting yield spreads are founded on economic fundamentals such as risk and liquidity, or whether there is an aberration in asset pricing.

The next 12 months should go some way in answering this question. In an efficient market asset values should equalise. So, if yield spreads stay where they are through 2013 we should look for fundamental reasons for Australia’s high yields and their lack of compression. However, if yield spreads do narrow it suggests that currently inertia on the part of investors is resulting in temporary mispricing.

There are advocates on both sides of the debate at present.

Behind this debate are two conflicting theories of how markets work. Behavioural theory suggests that cognitive biases and emotions can influence investment decisions. This can be amplified when access to information is limited, as it often is in property markets where local knowledge and expertise are important. If it is indeed the case that investor irrationality is keeping yields inflated, it can be expected that the market will re-calibrate and the yield spread to international markets will narrow.

In contrast, the efficient markets theory argues that prices always reflect all publicly available information. Australia’s high yields therefore arise from fundamental factors, and the spread to other markets is likely to persist.

The next twelve months will be an interesting test of these theories. Pragmatically, Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts moderate tightening at the upper end of the prime yield range in 2013. It is expected that demand for ‘trophy assets’ from foreign investors will finally give way to some yield compression. But we do not see a major narrowing of the yield gap during 2013.

About the author
Alex McColl is a Market Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Sydney, Australia.

2013 Capital Markets In Asia Pacific – Moving On Up

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

The capital markets for commercial real estate across Asia Pacific are set to grow 10 to 15% in 2013. Our forecast for the Asia Pacific regional total of investment transaction volumes is at USD 110 billion. This growth will be achieved by increasing capital targeting the real estate sector.

The big trends for 2013 will be the growth of institutional sources of capital and the rise of cross border investment, as investors continue to drive cash into real estate developing the global asset class. Low yields available on other investment classes, the potential for inflation picking up and the availability of new good quality building stock in Asia, makes real estate an attractive option. We recently released a Jones Lang LaSalle white paper at the Davos Conference in Switzerland last week on the topic. Click here to access.

We finished 2012 at a shade under USD 95 billion worth of commercial property bought and sold across Asia Pacific, down on 2011 figure of USD 98 billion. The short fall in volumes was almost entirely due to a fall in transactions in China in the second half of the year, leaving China down approximately 25 % on the year before as the measures introduced by the Chinese government to slow their economy took hold.

In 2013 we will see the traditional sources of capital looking cross border and the rise of new sources. US based and global funds are returning to Asia after a lull post GFC. Australian pension funds will venture off shore, Japanese funds will look at South East Asia and Singapore will grow as a conduit for capital round the region. New sources of capital looking at the region will be the rise of indigenous Asian pension funds and insurance companies looking to buy real estate as part of an investment portfolio, as rising middle classes channel their earnings into savings, pensions and insurance products.

To put some numbers round these trends; in 2012 cross border purchasers accounted for USD 19.7 billion in 2012, equivalent to 21% of all acquisitions. Four countries accounted for 80% of the regions cross border acquisitions; Australia attracted USD 6.5 billion, followed by Japan (USD 5.1 billion), China (USD 4.3 billion) and Hong Kong (USD 1.8 billion).

The potential is for the proportion of acquisitions bought by cross border capital to grow beyond the 15% market growth. Singapore was a standout source, with one third of all cross border capital deployed in Asia Pacific in 2012 coming from the city state, at over USD 6.5 billion. Other major sources of cross border capital included global investors (USD 2.4 billion), the US (USD 2.3 billion), Canada (USD 1.9 billion) and China (USD 1.65 billion).

Capital will be on the move in 2013, with more headed for AP real estate.

About the author
Dr Megan Walters is the Head of Research, Jones Lang LaSalle Asia Pacific Capital Markets.

Leverage: How The Smart Guys Go Broke

Tuesday, January 15th, 2013

To quote Warren Buffet, “leverage is the only way smart guys go broke.” Most fund managers will tell you that the shocks experienced throughout Australia’s commercial real estate market in 2007 were not due to a failure of underlying real estate but were a failure of finance. For example, direct real estate values fell by around 2.5% (2007 to 2009) while the AREIT index declined by 70% (IPD).

With the cost of debt now falling to new lows, it seems prudent to revisit some of the fundamental concepts of leverage and how it relates to a commercial real estate portfolio.

During the mid-1990’s the A-REITs had an average gearing level of around 10%. This figure grew to about 40% by the end of 2007. As asset values collapsed, managers were left scrambling to recapitalise their portfolios. It is important to explore the issues that this creates, particularly in a capital constrained environment. Consider a hypothetical portfolio with a 50/50 loan to value ratio (LVR) at a total value of AUD 100 million. If the value of the portfolio declines by 20% the LVR increases to 63%. In order to maintain the original 50/50 LVR the portfolio is required to be recapitalised with an additional AUD 20 million. When asset values began to fall in late-2007 and capital markets froze, investors were left with a significant capital gap. Many of Australia’s listed property trusts were required to undertake significant and very dilutive equity raisings in order to ensure loan covenants were kept intact.

In periods of market up-swings the use of debt can enhance returns, but in a down-cycle it can have the reverse effect. Over the 12 months to Q1/2007 capital values in the Sydney CBD office market increased by 13.5% (IPD). On the down side, over the 12 months to Q1/2009 capital values fell by 10.2% (IPD). When the asset is leveraged with a 60% debt / equity split the returns on the up-swing jump by 3.90% while on the down side the losses are enhanced by 10.30%.

If risk and return have a direct linear relationship and if leverage changes the return expectations of an asset then it is correct to assume that it will also change the risk profile of that asset. To explore this point we have modelled the change in risk (measured as the standard deviation of returns) when leverage is applied to an unlevered asset. Over the past 10 years, unlevered returns in the Sydney CBD office market have had a standard deviation of 13.7%. When we apply a 60% debt / equity ratio the standard deviation jumps by an additional 620 basis points.

Since 2007 Australia’s REITs have restructured their balance sheets, disposed of non-core assets, closed their Net Asset Value gaps and won back investor confidence. With the cost of debt now at new lows, the temptation for A-REITS to once again wade back into debt markets is increasing. Only time will tell if history will once again repeat itself.

About the author
Luke Prokuda is a Research Analyst for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Brisbane, Australia.

Ceilings & Cliffs Drive Investment Volumes Above $400 Billion For 2012

Wednesday, January 9th, 2013

The prospect of higher capital gains taxes on commercial property transactions in the US in 2013 combined with strong final quarters in Asia Pacific and Europe propelled global volumes above our forecast of circa $400 billion for 2012. Our preliminary numbers are at $156 billion for the final quarter of 2012, resulting in full year volumes of $451 billion. This is a 4% rise on 2011 and higher than what we predicted at the start of the year. For 2013 we are expecting global volumes to be between $450-500 billion as commercial property continues to benefit from investors looking for secure income streams with modest capital growth over the medium to long term.

Although we all expected the fiscal cliff negotiations in the US to be resolved, many vendors didn’t want to take the risk and unloaded properties before the Jan 1st deadline. In the end the negotiations were resolved but without too many of the major issues being addressed. As a result final quarter volumes in the US were 90% higher than in the third quarter and 70% up on Q4 2011. This level of activity is consistent with the peak of the market in 2007 so is unlikely to be sustained given the current economic environment through 2013. AP also had an above average final quarter to bring full year preliminary volumes over $90 billion to end the year only slightly below the $98 billion recorded in 2011. Europe had its traditionally busy end to the year up 65% over Q3 and 18% higher than Q4 2011. However there has been a shift away from investment in the UK to a more pan –European approach with France, Germany and the Nordics witnessing a strong end to the year.

The prospects for 2013 look to be as interesting and dynamic as 2012. With economic growth forecasts not showing much growth over 2012 we are expecting commercial investment volumes to be fairly similar and to trade within a narrow range of between $450-500 billion for the full year. European volumes will continue to remain under pressure as the region teeters with recession, for the first half of the year at least. Asia Pacific is expected to show some growth with opportunities being presented through the increasing transparency and development pipeline in the region. The Americas has the potential to provide some significant upside if the early year political issues can be resolved and policy makers provide guidance and stability to the recovering job market. Although commercial property has consistently recovered from the lows of 2009, prices are still 20% below their peak according to the IPD global index although much of this price correction is to be found in secondary assets. However, we expect investors to continue to look at these opportunities in greater detail as pricing in prime, core cities and sectors looks vulnerable to a change in pricing in government bond markets.

About the author
David Green-Morgan is Global Capital Markets Research Director, based in Singapore.

A Good Start To The Year

Monday, January 7th, 2013

Asia fared better than other regions last year, but it too has not been immune to what’s been happening in the world’s economies over the last 12 months. This is evident given the new economic data from Singapore which shows that Singapore narrowly missed slipping into a recession in the fourth quarter with economic growth of only 1.8% (Q-o-Q annualised) in the fourth quarter.

So, now with 2012 in the past, what will 2013 have in store?

Well, certainly if the start to the New Year is anything to go by, things globally are looking a little rosier. Before I’d even set foot back into the office, the US fiscal cliff deal had bolstered equities markets around the globe; the FTSE was over the 6,000 mark for the first time in 18 months, and the Hang Seng up over 3%. Indeed as at the 4th of January, these bourses are up considerably on a y-o-y basis, nearly 12% and 30% respectively.

Being in the research business I understand just how important quality information is. Our clients buy the Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS) for a reason, sometimes they need concrete historical data and forecasts, sometimes they need access to observations and people on the ground.

On this basis, and given I’ve just completed my busiest time of the year out and about meeting up with clients and potential clients to discuss their plans for the year ahead, I thought I’d bring you some of my take-aways. Hopefully some of these high level observations may provide a little insight as to what may be in-store for us in Asia Pacific’s real estate markets in 2013.

By observation, there seems to be an air of confidence regarding Asia Pacific going into 2013. The region in general is very much on investors’ radars, possibly even more so than before. Interestingly, South East Asia which had not been in the sights of some clients, seems to be back on the agenda. China is still very much in favour and I continue to see increased interested in our REIS services for this market – something which I think bodes well given that this is a potential leading indicator for where clients may deploy capital.

Clients new and old alike, seem to be focusing their sights and refining their strategies – especially on the debt and investment front. For some investors 2011/2012 was a period of restructure, however with these restructures mainly worked through and now with tighter leaner teams at the fore, these investors are now in better shape to move forwards in 2013.

Indeed, if the latest RMB billion land transaction in Beijing is anything to go by, the highest premium paid at auction in two years, then the sun is still shining!

A Happy New Year, may it be good to all of us!

To access a taster of some of the key real estate indicators available through REIS, download our NEW mobile site to your handset at www.joneslanglasalle.com/datatouch.

About the author
Roddy Allan is a Director, Asia Pacific Research for Jones Lang LaSalle, based in Hong Kong.