Is Thailand’s commercial real estate industry really going green?

September 23rd, 2014 by Walai Nawakhunyinglert

In 2007, Thailand’s first LEED certification was awarded to a new manufacturing facility built by InterfaceFLOR, an American carpet tile maker. Since then, the concept of “green building” has attracted widespread interest from the Thai media, academics, developers and operators. But has Thailand’s real estate industry really “gone green”?

As the internationally recognised United States Green Building Council’s LEED platform began gaining traction, the Thai Green Building Institute (TGBI) was founded in 2009 to offer domestic players a local alternative in the form of the TREES rating system. In the last five years, 46 projects have achieved some form of LEED certification while another 27 projects have been certified by the TGBI.

Of the 46 projects that have been awarded LEED certification since 2007, 29 have received certifications based on Commercial Interiors criteria. Nearly all of these projects have been developed by American organisations, including Starbucks, KFC, USAID and Citibank, all of which have global corporate mandates to incorporate green building standards wherever possible.

PTT’s Energy Complex was the first office project in Thailand to be awarded LEED certification in 2010. Including the Energy Complex, nine new Grade A office buildings have completed in Bangkok since 2010, including five additional LEED-certified projects.

Table: New Grade A Office Buildings in Bangkok since 2010

Source: JLL

What we know:

  • Green office building construction costs in Thailand are 5-15% higher than for a typical office development. To that end, Siam Cement Group has publicly stated that their THB 3.5 billion (USD 110 million) investment in a new headquarters is designed to enhance their corporate image as a leader in sustainable development, with less focus on construction costs or long-term operational cost savings. By the same token, we believe other developers are similarly focused on building their corporate image, particularly in the hopes of achieving high quality tenants, rather than achieving lower operating costs, which are ultimately built into rental charges. This strategy seems to be paying off, as new LEED-certified office buildings have experienced healthy demand and are achieving higher than average rents.
  • Both in terms of anchor tenants like Citibank and USAID as well as retail operators such as Starbucks, American firms are leading the way in terms of occupier preferences for green certification.
  • The previous Bangkok city plan (2006) did not make provisions for green buildings. As all of the aforementioned projects were approved under this regime, we can safely say that the initiative to “Go Green” has solely been the domain of developers and occupiers.
  • What does this mean for the future of Bangkok’s commercial real estate?

    Eight of the 14 Grade A office projects in the development pipeline have already submitted preliminary applications for LEED certification. With new government incentives introduced in 2013 and an increasingly competitive office market, we expect that top-tier office landlords and developers will continue to leverage green building certification as a means for brand building and attracting the best quality tenants, ultimately leading to higher returns.

    Whether or not developers and operators in other sectors across Bangkok and indeed Thailand pick up the green ball and run with it remains to be seen.

    About the author
    Walai Nawakhunyinglert is the Senior Analyst in JLL Thailand’s Research and Consultancy group.

    The great divide in the Philippine residential condominium market

    September 22nd, 2014 by Claro Cordero Jr.

    The subject of the “asset bubble waiting to explode” in the Philippine residential condominium market remains contentious among industry stakeholders. While developers and brokers agree that the market remains healthy, there are many others who remain sceptical about the true health of the residential property market.

    The argument for those who believe that the residential sector is heading for a crash is mainly founded on the volume of new supply that is expected to complete in the market over the next couple of years. For the past five years in Metro Manila alone, the average number of residential condominium units completed in a quarter was approximately 6,000 units, while there are over 8,000 units that are expected to be ready per quarter over the next five years. This quarterly supply of new residential condominium units far exceeds the ten-year (2003-13) historical average of 600 units per quarter. To the naysayers, the future stream of completions is a product of the excessively hyped demand over the past few years.

    Evolving Metro Manila landscape with increasing number of residential condominium developments

    For those who believe that demand for residential condominiums remains healthy, their argument is anchored on the condition of the demand drivers – the improving spending power of urbanites, fuelled by remittances from overseas Filipinos (OFs) and the proliferation of the offshoring & outsourcing (O&O) industry employing a growing number of professional and skilled workers.

    In the 2Q14 Consumer Expectations Survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, the allocation of OF remittances for the purchase of residential developments remained strong. The consumer outlook has also improved because household income has risen on the back of higher salaries and an increase in the number of employed persons within each household.

    Moreover, in the first half of 2014, OF remittances grew by 6.2% y-o-y to USD 12.7 billion. Revenue from the O&O industry is expected to grow to USD18.0 billion with more than a million full-time employees (FTEs) by end-2104 from the USD15.5 billion and approximately 900,00 FTEs in 2013.

    With OF remittances and the O&O industry on an upward trajectory, demand for residential developments, particularly in the residential condominium sector, is expected to grow. As the demand for skilled Filipino labour, both within and outside the Philippines, consistently increases, we can expect the need for housing and accommodation, particularly those upgrading in the major urban cities, to remain strong.

    Nonetheless, it is no surprise to expect also a growing buzz among those who are waiting for a crisis to unfold.

    About the author
    Claro Cordero Jr. is the Head of Research, Consulting & Valuation Advisory for JLL in the Philippines.

    Is Australia on your itinerary?

    September 19th, 2014 by Jenny Dong

    Australia received around 6.7 million international visitors in the year to July 2014, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The number of international tourist arrivals has risen over the last two years. A large number of Australians travel overseas each year but the rate of yearly departures have slowed over the last few years.

    Over the past 15 years, tourism has on average accounted for 3% of Australia’s gross domestic product each year. Tourists’ spending, one of many contributors to Australia’s economic growth, added around AUD 115 million (USD 107 million) a day to the Australian economy in 2012-13 (ABS).

    Historically, New Zealand and the United Kingdom made up for the majority of international visitors to Australia. Reasons for this could be due to proximity to Australia, at least in New Zealand’s case; and Australia’s colonial ties, motivating antipodean travels from the United Kingdom.

    Over the last decade, the average annual growth in international visitors from China and from India has been well ahead of the rest, at 14.4% and 14.6% per annum. In absolute numbers, India still accounts for only a small proportion of total visitors (3%). Visitor numbers from China have been increasing rapidly in the past decade, and are forecast to reach parity with New Zealand over the next ten years, increasing by an average rate of 8% per annum (Tourism Forecasts – Autumn 2014, Tourism Research Australia). The growth in tourist numbers from other Asian countries and the Middle East is also forecast to be robust over the next decade.

    As the number of international visitors increases, so will the amount of spending by these visitors in Australia. Close to half of all inbound tourism expenditure is by Asian tourists, and this is forecast to increase over the next ten years (Tourism Research Australia). The growth will be led by China – spending by Chinese tourists in Australia is forecast to make up for almost 25% of total inbound tourism expenditure by 2022-2023, according to Tourism Research Australia. International retailers have been expanding their presence in Australia in recent years to capture this sector of the market, as well as to cater to local consumers. Some major international luxury retailers and fast fashion retailers expanded into Australia in 2014, increasing the retail offering, and at the same time satisfying a range of tourist budgets.

    Exchange rates also bear considerable influence on international travel. If the Australian Dollar were to weaken, as many expect will, then the number of Australians travelling overseas will likely decrease and we can expect further growth in international tourist arrivals, potentially offering a dual, positive impact on the retail market. Nominal retail spending in Australia, which has been growing by an average of 3.5% per annum over the last five years (ABS), will be further boosted by an increase in inbound tourism expenditure.

    Sydney – a popular travel destination for international tourists

    About the author
    Jenny Dong is a Senior Research Analyst for JLL in Australia, based in Sydney.

    Why retail real estate could offer Indian REITs the initial breakthrough

    September 17th, 2014 by Suvishesh Valsan

    The introduction of draft guidelines for trading in REITs in India has allowed, for the first time, a tool to channel small savings into the Indian real estate sector. Several owners of income-generating properties are presently considering setting up REITs. While office assets have been popular assets to securitise worldwide, market dynamics in India currently suggest that the retail sector could be a beneficiary as well. Factors underpinning the potential success of REITs in retail include:

    Low vacancy rates in Superior Grade[1] malls – During the past few years, developers reduced the supply of mall space in India because of rising vacancy rates following the economic slowdown. However, prior to that, developers had resorted to a breakneck pace of construction of malls in response to a spurt in organised retail business. Few developers had then realised the right ingredients for constructing a successful mall. Consequently, the overall vacancy rate today stands high at about 20% in retail malls across major Indian cities, while Superior Grade malls have vacancy rates averaging 10% only. Given that international retailers would prefer space in these malls, the shortage of quality space is evident, and this will be felt for some time.

    Low vacancy rates in Superior Grade malls suggest there is a shortage of quality space

    Source: JLL Research

    Opportunity for discounted asset purchases – For REITs to provide attractive yields, it is important they purchase assets at a reasonable price, which then fetch attractive rents. This is particularly important for retail, an asset type that is perceived as riskier due to the lower predictability of income. While upcoming Superior Grade malls will offer lucrative investment opportunities, some of the existing stock of poor quality malls could be up for sale at a discount. For instance, of Mumbai’s 65 existing retail malls, only 20 have the size that is suitable to securitise in a REIT, and of these, five or six could be considered distressed assets. These malls are underperforming primarily due to the financial distress of the developer, while other factors such as location, catchment area and retailers’ interest remain favourable. REITs may not want to consider malls that are strata sold, which is another major cause of mall underperformance.

    Strengthening demand – Recent reports from hiring firms (on job prospects), automobile associations (car sales) and the central bank (home loan disbursals and reducing inflation) suggest consumer sentiment has been on the rise in the past few months. This is good news for organised retail and indicates a rise in consumer spending going forward.

    Mall management – Compared to commercial buildings, whose tenants are relatively stable and share common facilities, management of retail malls is complex. Apart from catering to various brand categories, mall management also involves planning the right tenant mix, space optimisation and zoning, and constantly studying consumer shopping behaviour. There is a general sense that REITs would employ better mall management professionals and practices than the developer would, thus adding to the probability of their success.

    Given the limited number of existing retail malls that fit the requirements, REITs that make a move fast would benefit, while other REITs would have to wait until new supply hits the market. In addition, the rising consumer and retailer sentiment will lure REITs into seeking these low-hanging opportunities.

    About the author
    Suvishesh Valsan is the Senior Manager, Research for JLL in India, based in Mumbai.


    1 We have classified malls into Superior Grade based on location, developer reputation, occupiers’ profile, business model, design of mall, and other qualitative features such as mall management, ambiance and experience at the mall.


    What came first, Rome or the Colosseum?

    September 15th, 2014 by Durrell Mack

    One of my favourite podcasts is EconTalk hosted by Russ Roberts of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Most of the topics covered have to do with the US, but I find that many of the ideas discussed are applicable to the economic environment in China, and have helped to shape my views on the country’s real estate development.

    In a May episode about how city planning in the US after the Second World War led to cities experiencing high levels of debt and wasteful infrastructure investment, I could not help thinking of China’s current economic development strategy and its overarching plan to integrate the municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province into the Capital Economic Circle. In fact, the podcast is the basis for some of the key ideas incorporated in our recently released white paper, Strengthening China’s Next Economic Mega-region.

    One podcast guest noted, “There’s a seductiveness to go in and have the big flashy thing that you believe created the success in the neighbouring city. Historically – I like to point out that Rome didn’t get the Colosseum and then build Rome. The Colosseum was the by-product of centuries of success.” This comment elucidates one of the major problems with the Chinese government’s current approach to economic and real estate development, and a key reason why the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province is important. Local governments can no longer copy each other’s “if you build it, they will come” strategies or build unneeded iconic structures and expect successful outcomes. By adopting duplicative development strategies, each local government is creating excess capacity and space based on demand that has yet to materialise.

    The Colosseum in Rome

    In our white paper, like the guest on the show suggested, we recommend that local governments shift their strategies away from taking active roles in real estate development and instead let the private sector take the lead. The private sector is better at allocating resources and ensuring that any new projects that are built are financially viable. In essence, the private sector tends not to construct a Colosseum before there is a Rome.

    To find out more about our suggestions to the government and information on how real estate investors can benefit from China’s next economic mega-region, read JLL’s latest white paper, Strengthening China’s Next Economic Mega-region.

    About the author
    Durrell Mack is the Head of Research for JLL in Tianjin, China.

    Strong drivers of retail supply in Australia’s Sunshine State

    September 11th, 2014 by Rachel Johnson

    This blog will examine the link between population growth and the supply of supermarket anchored neighbourhood shopping centres. This trend has notable implications for the state of Queensland which over the past 20 years, has had particularly strong population growth (2.1% p.a.) compared with other eastern states (1.2% in NSW and 1.4% in Victoria). The mining boom, increasing domestic and international tourism as well as competitive house prices have driven interstate and overseas migration into the Sunshine State.

    During the twenty years between 1993 and 2013, Queensland’s population increased by 50.2% compared with 23.7% and 28.9% in NSW and Victoria respectively. In the same period, Queensland’s contribution to the Australian economy increased on a relative basis. The state’s share of gross Australian output increased from 16.0% to 19.4%, while NSW and Victoria’s share decreased.

    The high rate of population and economic growth resulted in a significant increase in the demand and need for retail property, which resulted in the construction of 572,000 sqm of neighbourhood retail space over the twenty year period. The current per capita provision of neighbourhood retail space in Queensland is 0.26 sqm compared to 0.19 across Australia (based on an analysis of data sourced from PCA-SCD [Property Council of Australia – Shopping Centre Directory] and ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics]).

    Coles anchored neighbourhood centre

    Over the next decade, Deloitte Access Economics forecasts Queensland’s rate of population growth to remain in line with the historical average of approximately 2.0% p.a., resulting in an increase of over one million people. Based on the current neighbourhood centre floor space per capita provision ratio of 0.26, we would expect South East Queensland neighbourhood stock to increase by 260,000 sqm.

    In the forward supply pipeline, JLL is currently tracking just 85,000 sqm of neighbourhood shopping centre space in South East Queensland, across all stages of development (proposed, plans submitted or approved and under construction). This reflects a deficit (to our estimate of 260,000 sqm) of 175,000 sqm, equivalent to approximately 30 new neighbourhood centres. The supply forecasts conducted by JLL are limited in that only centres in the planning stage to under construction stage are included. This gives approximately a 1-3 year horizon in the supply forecast as neighbourhood centres can quickly reach practical completion from the site acquisition stage to opening.

    Supply could be pushed even higher driven by the aggressive competition between the two major supermarket chains (Coles and Woolworths) to expand their network, a trend which has been gathering pace over the past two years. In 2013, 33.6% of total retail completions across Australia were anchored by Coles or Woolworths, considering only neighbourhood centres this figure increases to 92.6%.

    We therefore expect the need for supermarket anchored centres to remain consistently high over the next decade, and that our monitored supply pipeline will grow as sites are acquired to meet the need of the state’s strong rate of population growth.

    About the author
    Rachel Johnson is a Market Research Analyst for JLL, based in Sydney, Australia.

    The changing profile of foreign players in the Singapore residential market

    September 8th, 2014 by June Yang

    Be it foreign property developers hunting for development opportunities, funds eyeing properties to acquire, or foreign individuals wanting to invest in a residential unit in Singapore, the local scene was abuzz with foreign investors over the last decade. However all that changed with the myriad of government policies introduced to stop the residential market in Singapore from getting too hot.

    Percentage of foreign buyers in the private residential market has fallen

    The proportion of property purchases by foreigners to all private residential purchases rose over three times between 2000 and 2011.

    In 2000 foreigners made up only 4.1% of the market, representing 27 different nationalities with the majority from neighbouring countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia. By 2011, Singapore had progressed and solidified its position as a global financial hub, investment interest rose and foreign capital grew. The percentage of foreign buying also expanded to an all-time high of 17.5% of total private residential property purchases. However this had tapered down to 6-8% by 2012-14 given the higher stamp duty introduced by the government. While the proportion of foreign buyers to local has declined, the base of foreign nationals has widened. Today over 50 different nationalities are active in the local property scene, cementing Singapore’s status as a global city with an attractive investment environment in Asia.

    Participation from foreign developers

    Likewise, in the past, foreign developers’ participation in land development in Singapore was limited to a handful from neighbouring countries such as Malaysia and Hong Kong. As Singapore’s business and property markets moved up in transparency, the greater ease of doing business, and positive investment mood attracted a greater number of foreign developers into the residential market, especially those from China.

    According to JLL data, foreign participation in the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme (the only regular source of public land for development on the island) post the global financial crisis stood at 5.5%.This percentage jumped to an all-time high of over 20% by 2013, before softening to 13.1% in 2014 as a result of the cut back in land supply.

    In the past, many foreign developers partnered with locals in the development of residential land. Increasingly, these same foreign developers have embarked on such projects on their own, after having gained sufficient confidence and familiarity with the local market. However given the property cooling measures currently in place, these developers are likely to take a more cautionary stance going forward.

    About the author
    June Yang is the Assistant Manager of Research for JLL in Singapore.

    Hukou reform and China’s housing market

    September 5th, 2014 by Joe Zhou

    On July 30th 2014, the State Council released a guideline on the long expected hukou (household registration) reform, a step towards free migration from the country’s rural areas into its urban centres as part of China’s 2020 urbanisation plan. There is no doubt that this reform is crucial to China’s economic growth and structural reforms for the next ten years. Many even viewed this as an effort to revive the currently subdued housing market, particularly in the tier II and III cities. In the long term, the hukou reform could be a driver of housing demand. In the short to medium term, however, we believe its impact on the housing market will be minimal for two major reasons:

  • First, hukou reform will take place in a gradual way. According to the announcement, the government will relax restrictions on hukou registration in small and medium-sized cities (with population of less than five million), while large cities will see no major changes in hukou registration and may even face the possibility of tighter regulations. People have access to the social safety net – education, medical care, pensions, municipal administrative functions – in the city where their hukou is registered, and these services are of better quality in the large cities, which remain restricted, than in the small cities and rural areas. Since these benefits, along with market forces like better paying jobs, drive migration into cities, and the differential between the rural areas and the small cities is relatively small, hukou reform will not result in large-scale migration in the short term.
  • Second, as an asset class, buying a home requires substantial wealth accumulation. For those new immigrants, it will take years to accumulate enough savings to afford a new home after they move into the city.
  • The recent loosening of Home Purchase Restrictions (HPRs) in tier II and III cities will help boost residential sales in these cities in the short term to some degree. But for a meaningful and sustainable recovery of the housing market, banks need to adjust their mortgage policies as the market is primarily driven by first-time homebuyers and upgraders with mid-to-high level incomes who are sensitive to mortgage availability and mortgage rates. It was reported that banks have been gradually relaxing their mortgage policies after the central bank urged them to do so in May. Coupled with price discounts from developers, we expect to see sales steadily increasing as we head into the seasonally strong September-October period.

    Over the medium term, lower tier cities are likely to see housing supply continue to increase. The challenge many of them will face is if a combination of demand from rising incomes and immigration – potentially supported by hukou reform – doesn’t increase as fast. We expect developers to adjust their strategies by changing the mix of units in their projects to include more affordable housing, particularly in the form of smaller unit sizes, but ultimately they may also have to accept lower unit prices as well in order to shift the supply. In contrast, the tier 1 and 1.5 markets look healthier given their strengthening attractiveness to skilled workers and fast expanding middle class.

    About the author
    Joe Zhou is the Head of Research for JLL in Shanghai.

    Internet finance – an emerging demand source in China’s leasing market

    September 3rd, 2014 by Grace Lv

    Since 2013, more and more of my friends have chosen to invest their spare cash in Yu’e Bao, the online financial product platform launched by Alibaba. Just like my friends, Chinese customers are increasingly embracing internet finance companies, which offer services including third-party payment processing, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, high interest savings, fundraising and other investment products on mobiles and web-based portals. The internet finance sector’s growth has been boosted by several trends:

    1. Internet companies branching into the finance business
    2. Traditional finance industry companies expanding their sales channels to online platforms
    3. e-commerce growth driving demand for online payment solutions

    China’s internet finance sector has grown rapidly. According to the China Payment Industry Report (2014) released by the Payment & Clearing Association of China in May 2014, the transaction value of online payments in China reached RMB 8.96 trillion in 2013, up by around 30% y-o-y. Also, a prominent website focused on China’s internet finance industry released a 2014 P2P Lending Service Industry White Paper in June 2014 showing that the online transaction value in China’s P2P market leapt to around RMB 110 billion in 2013, more than ten times the figure from 2012.

    Seeing the internet finance industry as a potential step towards broader financial reform, local governments have announced a series of policies to support its development. In August 2014, the Shanghai municipal government issued guidelines to support internet finance through administrative, financial and legal means. The city will streamline registration procedures, and has pledged financial support through dedicated funding and tax incentives to encourage the establishment of internet finance entities. In March 2014, Shenzhen issued similar guidelines to boost the growth of its own internet finance sector.

    Meanwhile, realising a relatively high default risk and moral hazard in certain sectors – such as P2P lending – China’s Central bank and local governments are also planning to regulate the internet finance sector to curb risk. Additionally, the service scope of internet finance is expected to expand as financial reform leads to the creation of new markets, services, and products such as unrestricted deposit rates and potentially the distribution of asset backed securities.

    As an emerging source of demand for office space, internet finance companies are becoming increasingly active in China’s office leasing market. Rising demand from this sector has benefited different sub-markets. Some companies have chosen to locate their front offices (including sales functions and management) in Grade A space in prime locations, while leaving IT and back office functions in decentralised areas or business park locations with more cost effective rents. In addition, many newly established internet finance companies are opting to outsource IT functions to third parties, leaving them only in need of front office space in high quality buildings in prime locations.

    Looking forward, the implementation of related regulations will force internet finance companies with high-risk business models to exit the industry, thus leading to industry consolidation and improvement of business sustainability. As the internet finance sector continues to grow, office leasing demand from this sector will become more prominent and landlords are sure to pay increasing attention.

    About the author
    Grace Lv is a Manager in JLL’s research team in China, based in Shanghai.

    One shouldn’t miss out on tracking Ahmedabad real estate in PM Modi’s era

    September 1st, 2014 by Vivek Sahasrabudhe

    Over the past couple of months, no other Indian state has been talked about as much in the Indian media as Gujarat. Be it about Mr. Narendra Modi, former chief minister of Gujarat who is now Prime Minister of the nation or the growth model of the state.

    This fast developing province has seen the decade-long efforts start to bear fruit in the area of infrastructure development especially in Ahmedabad, the commercial capital of the state. In recent times, the city has become the symbol of the state’s progress story.

    The uninterrupted electricity and water supply, the wider roads and the rapid bus transit system have helped Ahmedabad to cement its position as a manufacturing hub. In the past, despite the city being known for its industries, particularly its textile and pharmaceutical enterprises, it did not create a sector-specific demand for real estate, unlike the IT/ITeS sector did for Bangalore and Pune. Up until recently, the city produced mostly blue-collar jobs and those employed preferred affordable housing, particularly in the unorganised real estate sector.

    To attract the participation of the organised real estate sector, affordable and well-connected real estate developments were on the checklist of the Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority. The planning resulted in well-rounded growth as Ahmedabad, unlike other cities, did not have any geographical constraints on expansion. Also, the committee refrained from giving any specific city node an undue advantage, due to which capital value appreciation was held in check for many years!

    Nonetheless, in recent quarters, noteworthy growth was registered in residential real estate prices. Residex, the index published by the National Housing Bank covering price movements in urban and semi-urban areas, showed that Ahmedabad residential real estate prices have grown faster than other major Indian cities over the past four quarters.

    It is true that current market sentiment has turned positive following the country’s recent general election but physical indicators have played a vital role too. The employment opportunities generated by the industrial/manufacturing segment have contributed most to the evolvement of real estate activity in recent times.

    With improved infrastructural facilities, many new manufacturers of automobiles, engineering and instruments have established themselves in the city and existing industries have been expanding their plants, especially on the outskirts of Ahmedabad in Sanand and Changodar. To support the manufacturing hubs, logistics activity has also been growing fast.

    Newly generated employment has looked at organised real estate to fulfil its housing needs as prominent developers have been offering small ticket size affordable dwellings in the outskirts of the city.

    Another growth driver relates to the fact that Gujarat is part of the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), which is an ambitious project aimed at developing industrial zones. Ahmedabad is anticipated to be an important link in this corridor. The city is expected to create more jobs, attract investment and ultimately generate greater housing needs. There will be no surprise if other cities in Gujarat follow Ahmedabad’s example in the coming years.

    About the author
    Vivek Sahasrabudhe is the Analyst of Research and Real Estate Intelligence Service, for JLL in India, based in Mumbai.